Will Rhind, CEO of GraniteShares, discusses gold’s ongoing price momentum and latest all-time high, saying he sees fear as a key driver right now.
However, increasing M2 money supply is also an important underlying factor for the yellow metal.
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
While there was no new market data in Canada, south of the border the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its March consumer price index (CPI) data on Friday (April 11). The all items CPI figures were down in March, posting a 2.4 percent year-over-year increase compared to the 2.8 percent recorded in February. On a monthly basis, all items CPI rose just 0.1 percent, in contrast to the 0.2 percent of the month before.
The largest contributor to the easing figures was a 3.3 percent year-over-year decline in energy prices, with gasoline leading the way, falling 9.8 percent. Core CPI less food and energy was down 2.8 percent year-over-year.
The drop in oil prices occurred as OPEC+ output increased to eight-month highs in March. Several OPEC+ countries exceeded their output quotas for the month, with Kazakhstan being the largest overproducer. These production gains preceded a planned increase in April, and OPEC+ intends to boost production again in May.
As production increases raise oil supply, oil demand could be affected by an escalating trade war between the US and China, as uncertainty over fears of an economic slowdown begins to influence investor sentiment.
The price decline follows US President Donald Trump’s initial announcement of his plan for baseline and reciprocal tariffs on April 2. However, while the blanket 10 percent tariffs remain in place, Trump later retracted the more severe tariff measures for all countries except China on Wednesday (April 9) for 90 days.
The tit-for-tat tariff measures between the US and China peaked on Friday, when China raised its import fees against the US to 125 percent after the US increased theirs to 145 percent on Thursday.
Trump’s reversal on the tariffs for other countries came after a selloff in the US bond market, as investors distanced themselves from what is typically seen as a safe asset amid high market volatility. The benchmark 10-year treasury yield surged to 4.5 percent on Wednesday before retreating to 4.37 percent.
Canada and Mexico have been exempted from the 10 percent baseline tariffs, but other tariffs remain, including the 25 percent tariff on non-USMCA-compliant goods. The US also added a 20 percent increase to the existing 14.4 percent tariff on softwood lumber imports, bringing the total to 34.45 percent.
The markets were in chaos this week, continuing last week’s selloffs at the start of the week but rallying after Trump announced a pause on tariffs on Wednesday. While the majority of market indexes ended the week in the green, they were still down significantly from the start of April.
In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite Index (INDEXTSI:OSPTX) gained 2.74 percent during the week to close at 23,587.80 on Friday, the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (INDEXTSI:JX) soared 11.49 percent to 615.80 and the CSE Composite Index (CSE:CSECOMP) rose 4.07 percent to 109.68.
US equity markets were highly volatile this week, but posted significant gains by close on Friday, with the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:INX) adding 8.27 percent to close at 5,363.35, the Nasdaq 100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) gaining 11.44 percent to 18,690.05. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) shed 7.41 percent to 38,314.85.
The combined effects of tariffs, equity market volatility, and instability in US Treasury bonds pushed the US dollar index (DXY) to three-year lows this week, hovering around the 100-point mark at the end of the day on Friday.
The sinking dollar helped push commodities higher, sending the gold price to a new high of US$3,244.30 per ounce on Friday. It pulled back slightly from the high to close the week up 6.49 percent at US$3,235.70. The silver price posted even stronger gains, rising 9 percent during the period to US$32.22.
In base metals, the COMEX copper price surged 9.81 percent over the week to US$4.59 per pound. Meanwhile, the S&P GSCI (INDEXSP:SPGSCI) gained 0.94 percent to close at 525.15.
So how did mining stocks perform against this backdrop?
Here’s a look at this week’s five best-performing Canadian mining stocks below.
Stock data for this article was retrieved at 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday using TradingView’s stock screener. Only companies trading on the TSX, TSXV and CSE with market capitalizations greater than C$10 million are included. Companies within the non-energy minerals and energy minerals sectors were considered.
Weekly gain: 122.22 percent
Market cap: C$183.77 million
Share price: C$1.60
Tethys Petroleum is an oil and gas exploration and production company focused on advancing operations in Kazakhstan.
The company holds a portfolio of production contracts in the North Ustyurt basin north of the Aral Sea. The properties consist of the Kyzyloi production contract, the Akkulka and the Kul-Bas exploration licenses and production contracts.
In its Q3 2024 update released on November 26, the company indicated it produced 259,513 barrels of oil and 22.14 million cubic meters of natural gas through the first nine months of 2024.
Its oil production represented a 75 percent fall off from its 2023 production totals and owed to the ending of exploration contracts and pilot production in October 2023. It noted that test oil production from some wells was restarted and produced during Q2 and Q3 2024.
Shares in Tethys rose this past week, but it has not released news since February 3 when it provided a corporate update.
In the release, the company stated it had withdrawn its application to transition its contract for the Kul Bas field to a production contract. The company determined that it would achieve higher revenue by selling through current channels under a testing production contract rather than a full production contract.
It also mentioned that it had entered into an agreement with NatGaz to be a buyer of Tethys. Under the terms of the deal, NatGaz began accepting gas from Tethys on February 17, and the agreement is expected to generate over US$700,000 per month in revenue.
Weekly gain: 90.91 percent
Market cap: C$20.2 million
Share price: C$0.42
Onyx gold is an exploration company advancing its Munro-Croesus project, located near Timmins in Ontario, Canada. The company has increased the size of the land package by 200 percent between 2020 and 2024, and the project now covers an area of 95 square kilometers.
Munro-Croesus hosts the historic Croesus mine, which produced 14,859 ounces of gold between 1915 and 1936 with an average grade of 95.3 grams per metric ton (g/t). Onyx is the first company to explore the property since the mine closed.
Shares in Onyx surged this week after it released drill results from the project on Thursday. In the release the company highlighted a broad mineralized assay from a newly identified gold zone, with an average grade of 3.4 g/t gold over 69.6 meters, including an intersection of 38.5 g/t gold over 3 meters.
Onyx also said it had signed an option agreement to acquire a 100 percent interest in a 21 hectare land package contiguous with the property’s Argus North zone.
Weekly gain: 68.89 percent
Market cap: C$45.25 million
Share price: C$0.76
Angus Gold is a gold exploration company focused on its Golden Sky project in Northern Ontario, Canada.
The project covers an area of 261 square kilometers and includes the Dorset Gold Zone, which has near-surface mineralization. According to a 2020 technical report, the zone contains an indicated historic mineral resource estimate of 40,000 ounces of gold from 780,000 metric tons of ore with an average grade of 1.42 g/t, along with an additional inferred resource of 180,000 ounces from 4.76 million metric tons of ore with a grade of 1.19 g/t.
Angus shares posted gains this week after it announced on Monday that it had entered into a definitive agreement in which Wesdome Gold Mines (TSX:WDO,OTCQX:WDOFF) will acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Angus. Wesdome currently owns a 10.4 percent stake in Angus or 14.9 percent on a partially diluted basis.
Under the terms of the agreement, each Angus share will be exchanged for an aggregate value of C$0.77, representing a 59 percent premium over its 20-day volume weighted average as of April 4.
The transaction will consolidate the Golden Sky project with Wesdome’s Eagle River project into a 400 square kilometer contiguous land package.
Weekly gain: 63.64 percent
Market cap: C$72.67 million
Share price: C$1.80
Lara Exploration is a copper miner, explorer and royalty generator focused on South America.
For 2024, its primary asset has been the Planalto copper project in the Carajas Mineral Province in Pará, Brazil. The property comprises five mineral tenements covering a total area of 3,867 hectares. More than 23,000 meters of drilling have been conducted, and three primary deposits — Homestead, Cupuzeiro and Planalto — have been identified.
The most recent news from the project came on October 17, when Lara filed the technical report for its maiden resource estimate, which outlines a total indicated resource of 252,800 MT of copper from 47.7 million MT of ore with an average grade of 0.53 percent copper. The report also outlines an inferred resource for Planalto of 548,900 MT of copper from 154 million MT of ore with an average grade of 0.36 percent copper.
Lara also owns a 5 percent net profit interest, along with a 2 percent net smelter return royalty, in the Celesta copper mine in Brazil. Its partners are private companies Tessarema Resources and North Extração de Minério.
On November 12, Lara announced that operations had restarted at the mine after it had been placed on care and maintenance while Tessarema worked to reinstate permits to the property. In the release, Lara said that mining and ore processing from stockpiles began in October and is expected to ramp up gradually over the coming months.
Shares in Lara rose this past week, but the company has not released updates from the project in 2025.
Weekly gain: 52.5 percent
Market cap: C$28.24 million
Share price: C$0.61
Fortune Bay is a gold and uranium exploration company that is working to advance its Murmac uranium project in Saskatchewan, Canada.
The project is located within the Athabasca basin and consists of 17 mineral claims over an area of 10,363 hectares. Historic exploration at the site has identified a near-surface prospect with a 30-kilometer strike length. Work in the 1980s discovered numerous occurrences with greater than 1 percent uranium oxide.
Since 2023, exploration at Murmac has been funded by an option agreement with Aero Energy (TSXV:AERO,OTC Pink:AAUGF), which has the opportunity to acquire a 70 percent interest in the project by providing C$6 million in exploration expenditures over a period of three and a half years.
On February 20, Fortune Bay announced winter drill targets at Murmac. The company said the targets were supported by the completion of a radon-in-water survey at Howland lake, which identified three anomalies that overlie electromagnetic conductors and represent graphite-rich host rocks.
The company announced on March 19 that it began the drill program, which is expected to include up to six holes over about 900 meters.
Fortune’s most recent news came on Monday when it increased a non-brokered private placement to raise gross proceeds of up to C$3 million. The company said the funds raised would go towards advancing its projects and general corporate purposes.
The TSX, or Toronto Stock Exchange, is used by senior companies with larger market caps, and the TSXV, or TSX Venture Exchange, is used by smaller-cap companies. Companies listed on the TSXV can graduate to the senior exchange.
As of February 2024, there were 1,572 companies listed on the TSXV, 905 of which were mining companies. Comparatively, the TSX was home to 1,859 companies, with 181 of those being mining companies.
Together the TSX and TSXV host around 40 percent of the world’s public mining companies.
There are a variety of different fees that companies must pay to list on the TSXV, and according to the exchange, they can vary based on the transaction’s nature and complexity. The listing fee alone will most likely cost between C$10,000 to C$70,000. Accounting and auditing fees could rack up between C$25,000 and C$100,000, while legal fees are expected to be over C$75,000 and an underwriters’ commission may hit up to 12 percent.
The exchange lists a handful of other fees and expenses companies can expect, including but not limited to security commission and transfer agency fees, investor relations costs and director and officer liability insurance.
These are all just for the initial listing, of course. There are ongoing expenses once companies are trading, such as sustaining fees and additional listing fees, plus the costs associated with filing regular reports.
Investors can trade on the TSXV the way they would trade stocks on any exchange. This means they can use a stock broker or an individual investment account to buy and sell shares of TSXV-listed companies during the exchange’s trading hours.
Article by Dean Belder; FAQs by Lauren Kelly.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Securities Disclosure: I, Lauren Kelly, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Major miner Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO)reported total spending of AU$10.3 billion with Western Australian suppliers in 2024, marking a new record for the company.
The commodities giant boosted its spending with suppliers in the state by AU$1.5 billion for the year in a bid to support local businesses continuously and grow its Pilbara mining portfolio.
Since 2018, the company has worked with around 2,400 suppliers in Western Australia annually. Its annual spend with suppliers has more than doubled over the past six years.
“Rio Tinto has been in Western Australia for almost 60 years, and we remain committed to sharing our success with the communities where we operate,” said Rio Tinto Iron Ore Chief Executive Simon Trott.
He added that partnering with local businesses allows the company to help create jobs and strengthen regional communities, all while providing benefits and sponsorship to small to large business owners.
Rio Tinto is also prioritising Indigenous-owned businesses in the state. Its spending with Indigenous-owned businesses in 2024 reached AU$769 million, 30 percent more than the recorded amount in 2023. Pilbara businesses received AU$969 million from Rio Tinto, with 60 percent of this going to Indigenous-owned businesses in the region.
Rio Tinto has attributed the spending increase to its project developments in the state, including heavy mining machinery and earthworks for its US$2 billion Western Range mine.
Located in Pilbara 10 kilometres southeast of Paraburdoo, the Western Range mine is expected to produce 25 million tonnes of iron ore annually. It is scheduled to open and complete its first production this year.
The company received approval for its US$1.8 billion Brockman Syncline 1 project this month, allowing it to sustain production and support for Western Australian businesses moving forward.
Rio Tinto owns a portfolio of large iron ore assets in the Pilbara. The company had produced 327.9 million tonnes of iron ore at these operations as of 2023, employing around 16,000 people across its projects.
A total of 17 mines, four independent port terminals, a rail network spanning nearly 2,000 kilometres and related infrastructure are held by Rio Tinto in the region. These assets help it maintain its reputation in the global iron ore industry.
Securities Disclosure: I, Gabrielle de la Cruz, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Syntheia Corp. (CSE: SYAI) (‘Syntheia’ or the ‘Company’) (Syntheia.ai), a leading provider of conversational AI solutions for inbound telephone call management, is pleased to announce that it has entered into a services agreement dated March 30, 2025 (the ‘Agreement’) with the Rob Morrison Campaign (the ‘Campaign’) in British Columbia to provide telemarketer services to the Campaign.
Recognizing political campaigns’ increased reliance on data-driven strategies, Syntheia’s AI platform enables campaigns to efficiently manage large-scale outreach while personalizing interactions with voters.
Pursuant to the terms of the Agreement, Syntheia’s AssistantNLP is autonomously managing outbound calls for the Campaign. With approximately 20,000 numbers to dial, AssistantNLP is gathering information about voting intentions, providing information about the Campaign, and answering inquiries. The Campaign will pay Syntheia $9,500 for up to 120,000 minutes.
‘Syntheia’s AssistantNLP brings efficiency and scalability to political campaigns allowing candidates and organizations to reach voters in a personalized way while optimizing outreach and reducing operational costs,‘ said Tony Di Benedetto, Chief Executive Officer. ‘As a company, we remain politically neutral and are committed to providing exceptional service to all our customers.‘
With compliance and data security as our top priorities, Syntheia strives to adhere to all relevant regulations while maintaining the integrity and confidentiality of voter data.
About Syntheia
Syntheia is an artificial intelligence technology company which is developing and commercializing proprietary algorithms to deliver human-like conversations. Our SaaS platform offers conversational AI solutions for both enterprise and small-medium business customers globally.
For further information, please contact:
Tony Di Benedetto
Chief Executive Officer
Tel: (844) 796-8434
Cautionary Statement
Neither the Canadian Securities Exchange nor its Market Regulator (as that term is defined in the policies of the Canadian Securities Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.
This news release contains certain ‘forward-looking information’ within the meaning of applicable securities law. Forward-looking information is frequently characterized by words such as ‘plan’, ‘expect’, ‘project’, ‘intend’, ‘believe’, ‘anticipate’, ‘estimate’, ‘may’, ‘will’, ‘would’, ‘potential’, ‘proposed’ and other similar words, or statements that certain events or conditions ‘may’ or ‘will’ occur. These statements are only predictions. Forward-looking information is based on the opinions and estimates of management at the date the information is provided and is subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking information. Forward-looking statements in this news release include, but are not limited to the number of minutes that the Campaign will use and revenues derived from the relationship between the Company and the Campaign. Readers are cautioned that forward‐looking information is not based on historical facts but instead reflects the Company’s management’s expectations, estimates or projections concerning the business of the Company’s future results or events based on the opinions, assumptions and estimates of management considered reasonable at the date the statements are made.
Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward‐looking information are reasonable, such information involves risks and uncertainties, and undue reliance should not be placed on such information, as unknown or unpredictable factors could have material adverse effects on future results, performance or achievements. Please refer to the Company’s listing statement available on SEDAR+ for a list of risks and key factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward‐looking information. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should assumptions underlying the forward‐looking information prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those described herein as intended, planned, anticipated, believed, estimated or expected.
Although the Company has attempted to identify important risks, uncertainties and factors which could cause actual results to differ materially, there may be others that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. The Company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking information if circumstances or management’s estimates or opinions should change unless required by law. The reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking information.
The securities of the Company have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirement. This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy nor shall there be any sale of the securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.
To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/248249
News Provided by Newsfile via QuoteMedia
Another interesting week in the stock market comes to an end.
The past few days were flooded with the twists and turns of President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which were later put on a 90-day pause except for China, which got hit with higher tariffs.
Then came China’s retaliation, which stirred the pot even more. Where tariffs between the two countries will end up is anyone’s guess, but all it’s doing now is adding to even more uncertainty.
The wild swings that we are seeing in the stock market’s price action make it a challenging environment for investors and traders. And with consumer confidence weakening, investors are getting nervous and confused. When the stock market environment is dominated by wild swings based on news headlines, it makes analyzing price charts more difficult. Many charts are technically broken down, and indicators tend to be more skewed due to the recent wide-ranging days.
The daily chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is a great example of how the crazy wild swings of the last six days aren’t doing much to help determine trend direction.
FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF SPY. The last six trading days have been erratic to say the least. It makes it impossible to determine whether the bulls or bears are in control. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
The last six candlestick bars display erratic movement with wide range days. Note the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is trending downward and getting close to the 200-day SMA. While the overall trend is pointing lower, it’s difficult to tell if SPY will move lower or reverse.
You’re better off looking at a longer-term chart, such as a weekly or monthly one, to get a sense of the overall trend direction. The weekly chart of the SPY is less erratic and restores faith in the technical analysis.
FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF SPY. This is much calmer and clearly shows the longer-term trend. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
Even though it’s clear that SPY has broken below its 40-week SMA, it’s still above its 150-week, which is a ray of hope. Let’s see where it ends up next week. The more concerning point is that the range of the last two bars is the widest it has been in the last five years.
You can’t get past this week’s market action without noticing bonds. With higher tariffs, you’d expect yields to fall, but we’re not seeing that happen. On Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield hit a high of 4.59% on Friday and the 30-year went as high as 4.99%. Although yields pulled back, they are still relatively high.
Bond prices came back a bit after hitting a low that almost coincided with its January low (red dashed line). See the chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) below.
FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF TLT. Note the steep decline in the last six bars. Although bond prices came back on Friday, there’s no knowing what will happen next week. Watch this chart closely. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.The big question is if Friday’s upside move is enough to reverse the trend in bond prices. Momentum indicators are still weak and trending to the downside, and, from a technical perspective, it’ll take a lot for bond prices to trend higher.
Falling bond prices don’t bode well for investors. Typically, when equities fall, bond prices rise. Yet we’re seeing the opposite occurring. That investors are selling US bonds and looking at alternative safe-havens worries Wall Street. The rise in bond prices also makes the White House nervous, and it puts the Federal Reserve in a tight spot.
Tariffs can send inflation higher and, generally, an inflationary environment does not support interest rate cuts. But if the US finds itself in a position where inflation is rising and economic growth is slowing, the Fed may have to cut rates.
Who knows what we will hear next week? Remember, this is a headline-driven market, and any news can send values moving drastically in either direction. On Friday afternoon, stocks reversed on the heels of a news release from the White House stating that a deal with China could be in the works. You can’t rule out a weekend risk.
Another unusual move is the weakening of the US dollar. Increasing tariffs should strengthen the US dollar. Instead, the dollar is weakening. The daily chart of Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) shows the ETF is trading well below its 200-day SMA (red line).
FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF UUP. The ETF is trading below its 200-day SMA. Will it hit its 52-week low? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
The US dollar is showing no signs of a turnaround in the US dollar. The euro, British pound, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen are strengthening against the dollar. Pull up the charts of $EURUSD, $GDPUSD, $USDSCHF, and $USDJPY on the StockCharts platform and follow the currency markets. Or head over to the revised Market Summary page, scroll down to the Other Assets panel, and click the Currencies tab. you’ll see all the currency pairs listed.
Downtrends in equities, US bond prices, and the US dollar send a message that investors are selling US assets. Where are they parking their cash? Gold is one place. Interest in gold has gone through the roof with gold prices hitting a new all-time high on Friday. When things are as uncertain as they are now, it’s time to step back and observe the macro landscape. That means viewing long-term equity charts, bonds, and currencies. Bonds are critical in this landscape. They give a big picture of the overall strength of the US economy.
On the Radar Next Week
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff was in Russia on Friday to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin after peace talks with Ukraine stalled out in recent weeks, ‘frustrating’ President Donald Trump.
‘This is another step in the negotiating process towards a ceasefire,’ White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said of the meeting. ‘I think the president has been quite clear that he’s been continually frustrated with both sides of this conflict, and he wants to see this fighting, and he wants the war to end.’
Russian media broadcast images of Putin and Witkoff meeting at the presidential library in St. Petersburg.
Leavitt said the U.S. had ‘leverage’ over Ukraine and Russia to pressure them to agree to peace.
‘We believe we have leverage in negotiating a deal… And we’re going to use that leverage. And the president is determined to see this through,’ Leavitt said.
Trump has demanded that both sides agree to an immediate 30-day ceasefire while they hash out a longer peace deal. Ukraine has agreed to this, while Russia has not. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed Ukraine had found two Chinese men fighting on behalf of Russia within their borders, a development that would suggest Russia is receiving direct manpower aid from both North Korea and China.
Zelenskyy said at least 155 Chinese citizens were fighting for Russia as he accused Putin of ‘prolonging the war’ — a claim the Kremlin denied Thursday, stating that China takes a ‘balanced position’ to the war and that ‘Zelenskyy is wrong.’ Fox News Digital has reached out to the Russian Ministry of Defense for further comment.
Ahead of Witkoff’s meeting with Russian officials, Trump ramped up pressure on Putin, writing on Truth Social: ‘Russia has to get moving. Too many people are DYING, thousands a week, in a terrible and senseless war – a war that should have never happened, and wouldn’t have happened, if I were President!!!’
Trump said on March 31 that he was ‘pissed off’ with the Russian leader and threatened to put ‘secondary tariffs’ on Russia’s oil exports, its financial lifeline for the war effort. That could mean sanctioning countries that buy Russian oil or cracking down on its ‘shadow fleet’ of tankers carrying oil across the globe in disguise.
Trump has previously aired out complaints about Zelenskyy, too, calling him a ‘dictator without elections.’ A public White House meeting last month erupted into a near-shouting match where Zelenskyy abruptly left the premises.
Ukraine agreed to both the unconditional ceasefire and a more tailored maritime ceasefire, but Russia has made a fresh round of demands, including the lifting of some sanctions.
‘We are making progress. We hope that we are getting relatively close to getting a deal between Russia and Ukraine to stop the fighting,’ Trump said during a Cabinet meeting on Thursday.
The U.S. and Russia carried out a prisoner exchange deal that saw the return of ballerina and U.S.-Russian citizen Ksenia Karelina to the U.S. on Friday. Karelina was sentenced to 12 years in prison at the start of the war in 2022 for donating $51 to a Ukrainian charity.
On Thursday, U.S. and Russian officials met in Istanbul to discuss reopening operations at each other’s embassies.
The St. Petersburg gathering is Witkoff’s third meeting with Putin this year. Over the weekend he will head to Oman to negotiate with Iran in nuclear talks.
Ahead of Friday’s meeting, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there was ‘no need to expect breakthroughs’ and the ‘process of normalizing relations is ongoing.’
Reuters contributed to this report.
This week, we’re getting back to earnings season during the shortened four-day period.
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) reports on the heels of JP Morgan’s solid results that saw its shares rally by 12.3% and recapture its 200-day moving average.
Watch the trading revenue numbers as added volatility should help their bottom line exceed expectations. The implied one-day move for earnings day is +/- 7.7% and, if the market is moving that morning, then expect more-than-normal movement.
FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF GS. If the stock rallies watch the $520 level. A break above this level could be a positive move.
Technically, shares have been put through the wringer. GS’s stock price has broken many key trendlines and support levels along the way. Maybe, just maybe, it has found a floor.
Like most stocks in this current environment, the swings have been wild. Lines in the sand have been drawn, and maybe GS can follow JPM’s lead as the charts are similar.
Things have been extremely volatile; the range between support and resistance is wide. The $440/$450 area looks to be a strong area of support for now. However, the trend has changed, and there has been much technical damage done. There are levels of resistance above, but it seems more likely that they may get tested before any retest of the lows.
On a rally, watch the $520 level, from which it broke down after breaching its 200-day moving average. If shares eclipse that, then it will likely experience a run back to its 200-day at $540. That would take the stock’s price back to its new downtrend line and should be met with much selling pressure.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has experienced some of the wildest swings since making a new high in early March. The stock price has fallen over 16%. Look for it to get back to its winning ways when the company reports on Tuesday.
Year-to-date, shares are up 5% and in one of the strongest sectors for those playing defense. Like all companies reporting, the focus will be on management’s commentary on future earnings guidance and potential impacts from global economic conditions.
FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF JNJ. The stock price could see more downside, or it could move up to its 200-day moving average.Technically, shares are in a bit of a no-man’s land. Price action has been streaky and now they report in the middle of this recent wide range.
The bear case is that shares have yet to reach oversold levels and test major support. They came close, but didn’t get below $140. So more of a downside could be reached before jumping into the stock.
The bull case, at a minimum, is a reversion back to the 200-day moving average, just above current levels. The best case is that it has little tariff exposure, making it a safer haven in tough times and may run back towards old highs.
Overall, outside a safe 3.3% dividend, the case to jump in for a trade is tough to make given its recent price action.
Netflix (NFLX) has given back all its gains from its last earnings cycle and hopes it can regain those levels when it reports on Thursday.
Shares are seen as a safer haven in this tariff war environment, but have not been immune to the wild market swings we have been seeing. NFLX has continued to put up solid numbers and fared better than most growth stocks during this time.
FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF NFLX. A head and shoulders top, bullish divergence in the RSI, and bullish MACD crossover lean toward a bullish move.
Technically, there are several more positives than negatives. NFLX’s stock price has formed a head-and-shoulders top, but failed to break its neckline at the $820 level and bounced. That was one positive development, but the pattern still hangs over the stock for now.
Secondly, there’s a bullish divergence in its relative strength index (RSI) when you compare it to recent price action. As price made new lows, the RSI did not. That indicates something has changed — this recent sell-off was not as strong as its predecessor and that a reversal may be coming.
Lastly, we may be experiencing a bullish crossover in its moving average convergence/divergence (MACD). While we always want confirmation, sometimes anticipating the move may be worth the risk. When tied into the above two factors, I believe it is.
The stock has a history of gaps after earnings, so watch that gap and price action immediately afterward. If NFLX experiences a gap higher and above the 50-day moving average, you can use that as a stop to manage risk. To the downside, watch to see if the $820 level holds. If it doesn’t, there could be an accelerated move to the downside.
Investor anxiety is reaching new heights. CNN’s Fear and Greed Index plunged to just three on April 8, marking its lowest level since March 2020, when COVID-19 lockdowns sent shockwaves through financial markets.
The index has since made a modest improvement and is sitting at eight.
These levels reflect sentiment not seen in over five years. Historically, fear of this magnitude correlates with significant market selloffs. For instance, in 2020, the index remained in single-digit territory from March 5 to 23 — a period when the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) lost more than 30 percent of its value during the early stages of COVID-19.
Economists and traders alike warn that fluctuations in this range can be short-lived, but tend to bring extreme volatility, often resulting in steep market declines. Although the first signs of recovery usually emerge once the Fear and Greed Index climbs above 10, a more reliable signal is a return above 25, which tends to precede sustainable rallies.
US President Donald Trump’s tariffs are behind the latest nosedive. Although a 90 day reprieve has been announced for most countries, uncertainty about the future remains. In addition, tensions between China and the US are heating up — US tariffs on China have ballooned to 145 percent, and China has raised its tariffs on US goods to 84 percent.
The immediate market reaction was negative. US stock markets experienced a sharp decline, and although there’s been some recovery, investors are increasingly concerned about the potential for these trade disputes to escalate into a global recession, contributing to the heightened levels of market fear reflected in the index.
While market sentiment indicators like the Fear and Greed Index don’t dictate future price movements, they do provide insight into the emotional state of the market — often a contrarian signal for savvy investors. When fear reaches extreme levels, it has historically marked moments of potential opportunity or further market turbulence.
So what does this latest drop in the Fear and Greed Index really mean? This article explores the significance of the CNN Fear and Greed Index, its historical context and what investors should watch for next.
CNN’s Fear and Greed Index is a tool designed to measure the prevailing emotions influencing the stock market by weighing seven key indicators. The Fear and Greed Index operates on a scale of zero to 100, with a score under 45 indicating fear, a score of 55 and above signifying greed and one in between marked as neutral.
Scores of under 25 and above 75 are labeled ‘extreme fear’ and ‘extreme greed,’ respectively.
The index aggregates seven key indicators, each reflecting different aspects of market sentiment:
When these indicators collectively signal heightened caution, the Fear and Greed Index falls into the fear zone, with extreme fear indicating widespread pessimism in the markets.
Understanding past instances of extreme fear can provide insights into current market conditions. The last two notable times the index hit extreme fear were August 5, 2024, and December 19, 2024.
On August 5, 2024, markets saw a sharp decline following weak tech earnings and US employment data, accelerated by an unexpected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan that resulted in investors trying to unwind yen carry trades.
This caused a ripple effect across global markets:
Investor fears resurfaced in mid-December 2024, when the US Federal Reserve signaled that interest rates would likely remain elevated longer than expected. The announcement sent shockwaves through the markets:
While CNN’s Fear and Greed Index is a popular barometer of market sentiment, it isn’t the only fear-based indicator worth watching. Here’s how other major sentiment gauges compare:
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index tracks investor sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. Crypto markets are particularly sensitive to risk-off sentiment, making this index an important measure for digital asset investors.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also dropped into extreme fear, with a score of 15 on March 4. This decline coincided with continued geopolitical tensions, including Trump’s announcement of 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
Though not a financial index, the Doomsday Clock, updated annually by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, reflects global existential risks, including nuclear tensions, climate change and geopolitical instability.
As of January 28, 2025, the clock was at 89 seconds to midnight, signaling heightened global uncertainty, which can influence investor sentiment in risk assets like equities and cryptocurrencies.
The plunge of CNN’s Fear and Greed Index into Extreme Fear territory signals widespread investor anxiety. But is this a warning of further declines, or a contrarian buy signal?
Historically, moments of extreme fear have often preceded strong market rebounds, as panicked selling creates opportunities for value investors. However, not all instances lead to immediate recoveries; some mark the beginning of prolonged downturns, and it can be difficult to tell which scenario is ahead.
While fear-based indicators provide valuable insights, investors should use them alongside fundamental and technical analysis to make informed decisions. Whether this moment marks a temporary panic or the start of a broader downturn remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: investors should be prepared for volatility in the weeks or months ahead.
Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.