As U.S. and Israeli forces strike deep inside Iran — reportedly targeting senior regime officials including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian — the question of who would lead Iran if the Islamic Republic collapses is no longer theoretical.

Iran has retaliated with missile barrages against U.S. positions across the Middle East, and while Iranian state media says top leaders remain alive and have been moved to secure locations, the direct targeting of political and military leadership marks a dramatic escalation.

Yet despite the intensity of the moment, regional analysts say there is no obvious successor poised to take control of the country.

The real power center: security forces

Experts consistently point to one determining factor: whether Iran’s coercive institutions — particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — fracture or consolidate.

If the IRGC remains cohesive, the most likely outcome is not democratic transition but a harder, more openly security-dominated system. A clerical reshuffle or military-led consolidation could preserve much of the existing power structure even if key figures are removed.

If, however, segments of the IRGC or regular armed forces defect or splinter under pressure from war and internal unrest, a political opening could emerge.

At this stage, there is no confirmed evidence of widespread security defections.

Reza Pahlavi: visible but long in exile

One of the most prominent opposition figures abroad is Reza Pahlavi, son of Iran’s last shah. He has lived outside Iran since the 1979 revolution and has spent decades advocating for a secular, democratic system.

In a recent statement, Pahlavi called the U.S. strikes a ‘humanitarian intervention’ and urged Iran’s military and security forces to abandon the clerical regime. He declared that the Islamic Republic is ‘collapsing’ and called on Iranians to prepare to return to the streets at the appropriate time.

But while Pahlavi has name recognition and support among parts of the diaspora, his actual base of support inside Iran is difficult to measure. He has not lived in the country for more than four decades, and many Iranians remain divided over the legacy of the monarchy.

Analysts note that symbolic visibility — including chants heard during past protests — does not necessarily translate into the organizational infrastructure needed to govern a country of nearly 90 million people.

Maryam Rajavi and the NCRI: organized but controversial

Maryam Rajavi, leader of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), has taken a different approach. Her organization announced a provisional government framework aimed at transferring sovereignty to the Iranian people and establishing a democratic republic based on her longstanding ten-point plan.

In a subsequent message, Rajavi called on ‘patriotic personnel in the armed forces’ to stand with the Iranian people and urged regime forces to ‘lay down their arms and surrender.’ She also rejected both clerical rule and what she described as ‘monarchical fascism,’ an apparent reference to restorationist movements linked to the former royal family.

The plan calls for dissolving the IRGC and other security institutions, separating religion from the state, abolishing the death penalty, guaranteeing gender equality and holding elections for a constituent assembly.

The NCRI presents itself as a ready governing alternative.

But the group — closely associated with the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) — remains deeply controversial. Its history of armed struggle and years spent in exile have led many analysts to question the depth of its support inside Iran, particularly among younger generations.

While some Western political figures have expressed backing over the years, domestic legitimacy remains uncertain.

No clear heir apparent

Despite bold statements from opposition figures, experts caution that Iran’s future leadership is more likely to be shaped inside military barracks and security compounds than in exile press conferences.

Four decades of repression have hollowed out internal political alternatives. No widely recognized civilian leader inside Iran has emerged with cross-factional legitimacy.

If the regime’s leadership were to fall quickly, the immediate struggle would likely be among security elites — not between rival exile figures.

For now, analysts say, Iran has competing visions but no consensus successor. Whether the country transitions toward a new political system, hardens into military rule or experiences prolonged instability will depend less on declarations abroad and more on whether the regime’s core power structures fracture from within.

Related Article

Trump tells Iranians the ‘hour of your freedom is at hand’ as US-Israel launch strikes against Iran

In a sweeping pre-dawn bombing campaign across Iran, Israeli forces targeted sites linked to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a senior Israeli official confirmed to Fox News. The official said Iran’s president was also targeted as part of the joint U.S. operation, dubbed Operation Epic Fury.

Reuters reported that Khamenei was not in Tehran during the strikes and was instead transferred to a secure location. 

President Donald Trump described the ‘massive and ongoing’ operation as the opening phase of a campaign that he said would devastate Iran’s military, dismantle its nuclear program and ultimately bring about regime change. 

‘It will be yours to take,’ Trump said in a video statement addressing the Iranian public.

Hours later, Tehran signaled it would not back down, saying it would defend itself against any attack.

‘This will be probably your only chance for generations,’ he added. Officials in Tehran said the country would defend itself against any attack.

Ahead of the strikes, the U.S. military amassed what Trump previously called an ‘armada’ in Iran’s backyard. Mapped out across the Persian Gulf and beyond, the deployment tells its own story, one of calculated pressure backed by credible capability.

The buildup coincided with indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran over Iran’s disputed nuclear program. Trump has warned that the regime must fully dismantle its nuclear infrastructure or face consequences. 

At the heart of America’s force projection are the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier strike groups — dual mobile fortresses at sea, guarded by destroyers and equipped to unleash precision strikes at a moment’s notice. 

More than a dozen other U.S. warships are also in the region to support.

For Iran, it means U.S. forces are not concentrated in a single vulnerable location — they are distributed, layered and positioned to operate from multiple directions at once. 

It was not immediately clear how or when Iran might respond. But with senior leaders targeted and U.S. naval assets positioned across the region, the latest exchange marks one of the most volatile moments in the decades-long standoff between Israel, Iran and the United States.

Related Article

Trump tells Iranians the ‘hour of your freedom is at hand’ as US-Israel launch strikes against Iran

Transportation Security Administration (TSA) workers are on the cusp of working without pay, and there is no backup plan in place to ensure they don’t miss a check.

During the longest government shutdown in history last year, the White House was able to shift around funding from the GOP’s ‘big, beautiful bill’ to ensure that military service members were paid. But TSA workers won’t get the same treatment.

Over 60,000 TSA workers are set to receive partial paychecks this week for the work they did before funding expired earlier this month. They won’t get another paycheck until Congress can land on a deal to fund the agency.

And the likelihood of that wrapping sooner rather than later is low.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said that if the Trump administration could ‘figure out a way to pay government employees, absolutely.’

‘I mean, these are people who have jobs and have commitments and have families,’ Thune said. ‘And, you know, it’s going to be really unfortunate if we get to a point where I hope we don’t, where people aren’t getting paid because the Democrats continue to insist on changes to things that are just not feasible or tenable.’

But a White House official told Fox News Digital in a statement that, like the 43-day shutdown, the Trump administration would be able to transfer funding ‘to cover certain employees at DHS that were funded by the bill — namely law enforcement and active-duty military such as USCG.’

‘TSA has not been part of that, as they have a different funding stream from these other agencies,’ the official said.

Republicans believe that a key difference maker in the shutdown could be longer lines at airports and flight cancellations start to stack up as workers go without pay and take time off. A similar scenario played out during the previous shutdown, when cancellations compounded day after day.

‘When people start missing paychecks, and you start having disruptions in travel and that sort of thing, it’s going to get more and more painful,’ Thune said. ‘So it’d be nice to fix this before and to avoid all that, but we’ve got to have a partner that actually wants to make a deal.’

The White House and Senate Democrats, led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., have been at odds over finding a compromise deal to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), with hopes for a quick resolution to the ongoing shutdown quickly fading this week.

Both sides have rejected back-and-forth offers over the last two weeks. Senate Democrats argued that, for now, whether the agency would be reopened and TSA workers get paid was in the White House and Republicans’ hands.

Senate Democrats portrayed negotiations as having totally flatlined and put the onus of further conversations on the Trump administration.

‘We told them what our priorities were, they answered with a very, very weak, limited response,’ Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., said. ‘And we said, ‘No, this is what our requests were. We made a few changes,’ nothing back.’

When asked if she believed the White House was negotiating in good faith, Murray said, ‘Not yet.’

But Senate Republicans said that talks were happening on the side among members.

Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala., hoped that she could convince enough Senate Democrats to come around and ensure that TSA agents, and others, wouldn’t go without pay for the foreseeable future.

‘I am working on talking to people,’ Britt said.

Related Article

Agency that nabbed ‘El Chapo,’ ‘Diddy’ threatened as Democrats’ DHS shutdown drags on

Iran launched missile and drone strikes targeting U.S. military facilities in multiple Middle Eastern countries Friday, retaliating after coordinated U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear-linked sites.

Explosions were reported in or near areas hosting American forces in Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Jordan, according to regional officials and state media accounts. Several of those governments said their air defense systems intercepted incoming projectiles.

It remains unclear whether any U.S. service members were killed or injured, and the extent of potential damage to American facilities has not yet been confirmed. U.S. officials have not publicly released casualty figures or formal damage assessments.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) described the operation as a direct response to what Tehran called ‘aggression’ against Iranian territory earlier in the day. Iranian officials claimed they targeted U.S. military infrastructure and command facilities.

The United States military earlier carried out strikes against what officials described as high-value Iranian targets, including IRGC facilities, naval assets and underground sites believed to be associated with Iran’s nuclear program. One U.S. official told Fox News that American forces had ‘suppressed’ Iranian air defenses in the initial wave of strikes.

Tomahawk cruise missiles were used in the opening phase of the U.S. operation, according to a U.S. official. The campaign was described as a multi-geographic operation designed to overwhelm Iran’s defensive capabilities and could continue for multiple days. Officials also indicated the U.S. employed one-way attack drones in combat for the first time.

Iran’s retaliatory barrage targeted countries that host American forces, including Bahrain — home to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet — as well as Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base and the UAE’s Al Dhafra Air Base. Authorities in those nations reported intercepting many of the incoming missiles. At least one civilian was killed in the UAE by falling debris, according to local authorities.

Iranian officials characterized their response as proportionate and warned of additional action if strikes continue. A senior U.S. official described the Iranian retaliation as ‘ineffective,’ though independent assessments of the overall impact are still developing.

Regional governments condemned the strikes on their territory as violations of sovereignty, raising the risk that additional countries could become directly involved if escalation continues.

The situation remains fluid, with military and diplomatic channels active across the region. Pentagon officials are expected to provide further updates as damage assessments and casualty reviews are completed.

Fox News’ Jennifer Griffin contributed to this report. 

Related Article

Iraq War flashbacks? Experts say Trump’s Iran buildup signals pressure campaign, not regime change

As one of Israel’s staunchest defenders from the left, Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., full-throatedly endorsed President Donald Trump’s attacks on Iran as lawmakers on both sides of the aisle reacted Saturday morning.

‘President Trump has been willing to do what’s right and necessary to produce real peace in the region,’ Fetterman wrote on X. ‘God bless the United States, our great military, and Israel.’

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., one of Congress’ biggest backers of bold military action, is hailing President Donald Trump as a ‘man of peace,’ and ‘evil’s worst nightmare.’

‘As I watch and monitor this historic operation, I’m in awe of President Trump’s determination to be a man of peace but at the end of the day, evil’s worst nightmare,’ Graham wrote Saturday morning on X in a string of posts. ‘Well done, Mr. President.’

Trump’s U.S. military armada in the Middle East, working in concert with Israel, is targeting military targets and ballistic missile sites that pose an ‘imminent threat,’ a U.S. official told Fox News Chief National Security Correspondent Jennifer Griffin. 

The U.S. military is not targeting Iran’s leadership, but Israel is, the official added.

Strikes hit the compound home of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, in downtown Tehran on Saturday morning.

And Trump issued a video statement on social media, urging Iranian people to get out of the way for now, but ‘when we are finished, take over your government; It will be yours to take.’

‘God bless @POTUS for planning and now executing Operation Epic Fury, making America more safe and eventually more prosperous,’ Graham added. ‘I seek God’s protection for all under President Trump’s command, as well as our allies in Israel.

‘My mind is racing with the thought that the murderous ayatollah’s regime in Iran will soon be no more.

While reports of explosions happened hours earlier, Graham posted his first support for the actions after 3 a.m. ET, calling the ‘operation is necessary and long justified.’

‘The biggest change in the Middle East in a thousand years is upon us,’ Graham added in his second post on X. ‘The likelihood of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel getting back on track is exceedingly high – a subject I brought up last week to the key players in the region who concurred if the ayatollah goes down, historic peace advances.’

As the attacks were under way and battle damage assessments were yet to come, Graham delivered his prayers to the troops undertaking the operation.

‘As to the men and women participating in this operation for our country and Israel, may God bless you and keep you safe,’ he wrote. ‘If you are injured or fall, I believe with all my heart that your sacrifice makes your country and the world a better and safer place. This moment is why you chose to serve.

‘This operation has been well-planned. It will be violent, extensive and I believe, at the end of the day, successful. Again the demise of the ayatollah’s regime with American blood on its hands is necessary and more than justified.’

And, one of Trump’s long-time Republican critics, Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., also posted on X, noting Trump has not sought congressional approval – although there was a briefing held with the Gang of Eight earlier this week.

‘Acts of war unauthorized by Congress,’ Massie wrote on X.

Senate Armed Forces Committee Chair Roger Wicker, R-Miss., praised the ‘decisive action’ against ‘the world’s leading proliferator of terrorism.’

‘This is a pivotal and necessary operation to protect Americans and American interests,’ Wicker wrote in a statement. ‘The president has stated the operation’s goals clearly: thwart permanently the ayatollahs’ desire to create a nuclear weapon, degrade their ballistic missile force and their production capacity, and destroy their naval and terrorism capabilities.

‘These are the hardest decisions that face any American commander-in-chief, and I appreciate that President Trump and his team conducted a comprehensive strategy using all tools of national power and a well-orchestrated military planning process.’

The time to strike was now, according to Wicker.

‘The Iranian regime has never been weaker,’ he added. ‘Without the use of military force against them, Iran’s ayatollahs would simply continue to grow their ability to threaten Americans and our interests, working in concert with the Chinese Communist Party, the Russian dictator Putin, North Korea, and other terrorist allies. 

‘The ayatollahs have mortgaged the economic future of ordinary Iranians to engage in their obsessive and apocalyptic vision.   

Most importantly, I commend the brave men and women of our armed forces, who continue to demonstrate a level of operational proficiency unrivaled the world over. That fact will be evident in the coming days. Thanks to them, Americans are safer – not just today, but for generations to come.’

Related Article

Fetterman breaks with Democrats to back Trump taking military action in Iran if necessary