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Senate Democrats labeled billionaire Elon Musk ‘co-president’ and ‘shadow speaker’ among other titles as they reacted to the original stopgap spending deal’s implosion on Wednesday after he and ultimately President-elect Trump came out against it. 

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., said Musk ‘seems to be the guy in charge of the country now,’ reacting to his apparent ability to influence the bill’s prompt failure despite it having been agreed upon by bipartisan leaders in Congress. 

If a measure to provide funding for the government is not passed by Congress and signed by President Biden by midnight on Saturday morning, a partial government shutdown will go into effect. 

As of Thursday, the U.S. national debt was at $36,167,604,149,955.61 and continues to climb rapidly. 

After a 1,547-page short-term spending bill was debuted this week. Musk quickly took to X to trash it, pointing out various seemingly irrelevant provisions as well as its cost and length. 

He was soon joined by other critics, and Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance issued their own statement opposing the bill. 

This led to significant criticism from Democrats unhappy with Musk’s apparent ability to influence Trump and the Republicans in Congress. 

‘He’s the one who seems to be calling the shots,’ Warren told reporters. 

‘Elon Musk is the one evidently in charge of the Republican Party and has blown that deal up. So I don’t know how the Republicans are planning to recover from that,’ she said. 

Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., suggested that Musk is ‘already the shadow speaker of the House,’ in a slight against House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.

‘I think he’s unelected, and he’s created a whole lot of damage,’ said Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga.

He claimed Republicans in Congress were ‘busy listening to Co-President Musk and co-President Trump.’ 

‘I’m listening to the people of Georgia, especially the farmers who are struggling to get disaster relief. And, we need to make sure that we get that over the finish line,’ said Warnock.

Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., reiterated that Musk is not an elected official. ‘He doesn’t have any official government job,’ he said. 

‘We had a deal with Republicans in the House and now, because of him, the president-elect is on the verge of people losing their jobs and not getting paid over the holidays,’ Kelly said of a potential partial shutdown if a bill is not passed by a deadline of midnight on Saturday morning. 

Despite their Democratic colleagues’ claims, Republicans pushed back on the idea that Trump was being influenced by Musk. Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., noted that there are ‘lots of people around President Trump,’ adding that he doesn’t think Musk has control over what the president-elect does. 

Musk was tapped by Trump, along with former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, to lead what is called the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a proposed advisory board tasked with eliminating government waste.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

The House has passed a bill to avert a partial government shutdown on Friday, hours before the midnight federal funding deadline. 

The bill, which needed approval from two-thirds of the chamber, passed overwhelmingly in a 366 to 34 vote. 

All Democrats voted for the bill save for Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, who voted ‘present.’

Lawmakers were scrambling for a path forward after an initial bill was tanked by President-elect Trump and his allies on Wednesday, and a later bill approved by Trump failed on the House floor Thursday.

But Trump has stayed noticeably silent on this latest measure – which many House Republicans saw as a tacit sign of approval.

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., was optimistic after days of uncertainty, telling reporters there would be a House-wide vote Friday when leaving a closed-door House GOP meeting where leaders presented their plan.

‘We will not have a government shutdown, and we will meet our obligations for our farmers who need aid, for the disaster victims all over the country and for making sure that military and essential services and everyone who relies upon the federal government for a paycheck is paid over the holidays,’ Johnson said. 

Meanwhile, the national debt has climbed past $36 trillion, and the deficit is over $1.8 trillion.

The legislation, if passed in the Senate, would extend current government funding levels through mid-March, a measure known as a continuing resolution (CR), paired with just over $100 billion in disaster relief aid for victims of storms Helene and Milton, as well as assistance for the agriculture industry.

Johnson bypassed regular House procedures to get the legislation straight to a chamber-wide vote, a maneuver known as ‘suspension of the rules.’

In exchange for the fast track, however, the threshold for passage was raised from a simple majority to two-thirds of the House chamber, meaning Democratic support is critical.

Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., told reporters he believed Johnson struck an agreement with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. A longtime Johnson critic, Massie said he would not vote for the bill.

‘Trump wanted a debt limit increase, and now we’re bringing the exact same bill to the floor without the debt limit increase,’ Massie said.

Another Republican lawmaker argued Johnson would not move forward without Trump’s blessing.

‘We wouldn’t do it if they weren’t,’ Rep. Dan Meuser, R-Pa., said when asked if Trump and Elon Musk were supportive of the deal.

Trump and Musk led the conservative rebellion against the initial plan to avert a partial shutdown, a bipartisan deal that came from negotiations between the top two Democrats and Republicans in both Congressional chambers.

That bill, 1,547 pages, would have extended current government funding levels until March 14. However, GOP hardliners were angered by what they saw as unrelated measures attached to the bill, like a pay raise for congressional lawmakers, health care policy provisions and legislation aimed at revitalizing RFK Stadium in Washington, D.C.

It was scrapped as Trump and Musk threatened to force out of office any lawmaker who did not support pairing a CR with action on the debt limit.

The debt limit is suspended until January 2025 through a prior bipartisan deal, but Trump had pushed for Republicans to act on it now to avoid a messy, protracted fight early in his term.

The second iteration of the funding deal was much slimmer, coming in at 116 pages. It excluded the stadium bill and the congressional pay raise, but still included measures to fund the rebuilding of Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge and disaster aid funding. It also suspended the debt limit through January 2027.

A House vote on the second plan went down in flames, however, after 38 Republicans opposed to raising or suspending the debt limit voted with all but two Democrats to defeat the bill.

Johnson huddled with those holdouts Friday morning, along with Trump’s nominee to lead the Office of Management and Budget, Russell Vought, and Vice President-elect JD Vance. 

The bill that passed the House on Friday does not act on the debt limit, but Johnson pledged in that closed-door meeting to raise the debt limit early next year as part of Republicans’ plans for a massive policy and spending overhaul.

During their closed-door meeting Friday, House GOP leaders unveiled their CR plan as well as a plan to raise the debt limit by $1.5 trillion, followed by $2.5 trillion in net spending cuts, multiple people told Fox News Digital.

Democrats who left their own closed-door meeting shortly before the vote largely said they would support the bill – which they did.

President Biden has said he would sign it into law if it reaches his desk after a Senate vote.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

A smart investor listens to the stock market and this week’s stock market action was a perfect example of why this is important. 

It was a roller-coaster week in the stock markets leading many investors to quickly sell holdings when there was a big selloff and scramble to go long again on Friday when the broader stock market indexes turned higher. This is why it’s a good idea to always look at a longer time frame chart to get a sense of the long-term trend before making hasty decisions. 

If you pull up a weekly chart of any of the three major indexes you’ll see that the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) are trending higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) is also doing the same but it’s just hanging in there by a whisker.

The Ups and Downs

Comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday sent investors into selloff mode which spilled over into Thursday. But Friday’s slightly lighter-than-expected November PCE may have reversed investor sentiment. The broader stock market indexes moved higher spreading some holiday cheer to an otherwise gloomy week. 

What made the market move higher? It doesn’t make sense to look for a reason for the reversal in sentiment. Remember, it’s best to listen to the market and follow along. That said, a few interesting data points are worth noting.

The Federal Reserve indicated their focus was on a cooling of the labor market in their last few meetings. However, Wednesday’s comments from Chairman Powell suggested that the labor market is doing fine now but the Fed’s focus has switched to inflation. That may have made investors nervous and triggered the massive selling we witnessed on Wednesday. Friday’s light November PCE may have been a sigh of relief that brought back the optimistic sentiment. 

Despite the optimistic sentiment, one important news we can’t lose sight of is the possibility of a US government shutdown. A shutdown doesn’t necessarily impact the stock market but there may be inconveniences such as a reduction in government services that may send ripples through the economy.

The Year-End Party

As 2024 winds down, there will likely be very light trading days but there are some important events that unfold at the end of the year. There’s the January Effect which is when small-cap stocks start rallying. Small-cap stocks got a boost post US election but since late November they’ve been sliding lower. The daily chart of iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) shows the small-cap trend is still bearish. 

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF IWM. Small cap stocks took a big hit in December. Look for the full stochastic oscillator to cross above the 20 level with some follow-through to confirm their seasonal rally. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The full stochastic oscillator is deep in oversold territory and a cross above the 20 level would be encouraging for small-cap stocks. But there needs to be follow-through for the small caps to have a bullish rally.  

In addition to the January Effect, there’s the eagerly awaited Santa Claus rally, which is supposed to start next week. Friday’s price action may have reignited the possibility of having Santa show up this year. But I wouldn’t hold my breath just yet. 

If you look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 below, you’ll see that the three market breadth indicators displayed in the lower panels had started declining in late November, which should have signaled that the market was ripe for a selloff.

FIGURE 2. S&P 500 HOLDS ON TO SUPPORT. Friday’s price action may look slightly bullish but it needs more follow-through to confirm a reversal. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

What is concerning is that Friday’s price action didn’t change the market breadth narrative. So even though Friday’s rise was sizeable, with a bullish engulfing pattern that closed at the 50-day simple moving average, I wouldn’t rush to buy the dip just yet and certainly not on triple-witching Friday. For all you know, there could have been some short-covering going on. I’ll need to see more follow-through of the upside move before adding more positions to my portfolio. At least the S&P 500 stayed above the support of its mid-November lows.

The daily chart of the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index ($SPXEW) vs. the S&P 500 gives you an idea of how dominant the heavily weighted stocks influence the index.

FIGURE 3: S&P 500 VS S&P 500 EQUAL-WEIGHTED INDEX. The less-heavy weighted stocks in the S&P 500 are lagging the S&P 500. The equal-weighted index is trading below its 100-day moving average and has a long way to go before re-establishing its uptrend. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

$SPXEW is trading below its 100-day SMA. Note that Friday’s high came close to the 100-day SMA. A close above the 100-day SMA would be the first sign of a trend reversal in the equal-weighted index. But one day’s action doesn’t make a trend. A series of higher highs and higher lows needs to be established before a trend has indeed reversed. It would be more confirming if the non-Mag Seven stocks showed signs of catching up with the big S&P 500 index.

Volatility Pulls Back 

One encouraging point to end the week is the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) closed below 20 (see chart below). Investors were getting so complacent towards the end of November but if you had noticed the VIX creeping higher, you’d have seen the selloff coming. 

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF THE CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX ($VIX). The VIX was at very low levels from November but it slowly started moving higher signaling that investors were getting fearful. This led to Wednesday’s spike. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The pattern in the chart of the VIX shows that a similar pattern occurred from June to July, right before the August spike. Could a similar scenario unfold this time?

The Mark Twain quote, “History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes,” explains it so well. So as you navigate the stock market, listen to the rhythm and follow its lead. 

The bottom line: Set up your Dashboard panels on the StockCharts platform and get a bird’s eye view of the stock market.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 down 1.99% for the week, at 5930.85, Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.25% for the week at 42,840.26; Nasdaq Composite down 1.78% for the week at 19,572.60
  • $VIX up 32.95% for the week, closing at 18.36.
  • Best performing sector for the week: Technology
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Energy
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Applovin Corp. (APP); Palantir Technologies (PLTR); Reddit Inc. (RDDT); Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB); MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR)

On the Radar Next Week

  • November Durable Goods Orders
  • November New Home Sales
  • October S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

This week saw the fabled Hindenburg Omen generate its first major sell signal in three years, suggesting the endless bull market of 2024 may soon indeed be ending.  Why is this indicator so widely followed, and what does this confirmed signal tell us about market conditions going into Q1?  First, let’s break down the conditions that led to this rare but powerful bearish indicator.

Major Tops Tend to Have Consistent Patterns

Strategist Jim Miekka created the Hindenburg Omen in 2010 after analyzing key market tops through market history.  What consistent patterns and signals tended to occur leading into these market peaks?  He boiled it all down to three key factors which were consistently present:

  1. The broad equity markets are in an uptrend
  2. At least 2.5% of NYSE listings are making a new 52-week high and at least 2.5% are making new 52-week lows on the same day
  3. The McClellan Oscillator breaks below the zero level

One final step involves observing these three conditions occur at least two times within a one month period.  Looking at the chart, we can see that this completed Hindenburg Omen signal has only occurred three times since 2019: in February 2020 going into the COVID peak, in December 2021 just before the 2022 bear market, and December 2024.

What strikes me about this initial look at the indicator is that from a technical perspective, 2024 and 2021 have been remarkably similar.  Both years featured long-term uptrends with minimal drawdowns and low volatility.  So does that mean we are heading into another 2022 and a 9-month bear market for stocks?  Not necessarily.

Trend-Following Techniques Can Help Improve Accuracy

Switching to a weekly chart, we can bring in much more history to consider.  I’ve added red vertical lines to indicate any time we registered a confirmed Hindenburg Omen signal with at least two observations within one month.

Reviewing some of the recent market tops, we can see that this indicator did remarkably well in identifying topping conditions in 2021, 2020, and 2018.  Going back even further, you’ll notice signals around the 2007 and 2000 peaks as well.  But what about all the other signals that were not followed by a major decline?

People have quipped that the Hindenburg Omen have “signalled ten out of the last five corrections,” referencing the “false alarm” signals that did not actually play out.  I would argue that the key with indicators like this is to combine them with trend-following approaches, similar to how I approach bearish momentum divergences.

When I see a bearish divergence between price and RSI, or observe any other leading indicators like the Hindenburg Omen flash a sell signal, that doesn’t tell me to blindly take action!  What it does tell me is to be on high alert and look for signs of distribution that could serve to confirm a bearish rotation.  By patiently waiting for confirmation, we can improve our success rate and take action only when the charts compel us to do so!

S&P 5850 Remains the Level to Watch

So where does that leave us in December 2024?  While Wednesday’s post-Fed drop certainly represented a significant short-term distribution pattern, the longer-term trends for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are still quite constructive.

The S&P 500 broke below its 50-day moving average this week for the first time since September.  And while Wednesday and Thursday both saw the SPX close below the 50-day, Friday’s rally on improved inflation data took the major equity index right back above this key short-term barometer.

SPX 5850 has been my “line in the sand” since the November pullback, and as long as price remains above this threshold, I’m inclined to consider this market innocent until proven guilty.  And given the normal end-of-the-year window dressing common with money managers, I would not be surprised if the Magnificent 7 stocks and other large cap growth names remain strong enough to keep the benchmarks in decent shape into year-end.

But indicators like the Hindenburg Omen certainly have caused me to dust off the bull market top checklist, looking for signs of distribution that would imply further weakness.  One of my mentors and long-time StockCharts contributor Greg Morris once quipped, “All new highs are bullish… except the last one.”  I’m wondering if that early December high around 6100 may be the last one for a while!

One last thing…

I recently sat down virtually with author and technical analyst Chris Vermeulen to discuss the benefits of following asset flows, the dangers of holding dividend paying stocks during bear markets, how to navigate a potential breakdown in crude oil and energy stocks, and how investing and surfing are more alike than you might think!


RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

House lawmakers will soon vote on a bill to avert a partial government shutdown after a similar measure backed by President-elect Trump failed Thursday.

Congress is scrambling for a path forward as the clock ticks closer to the federal funding deadline, with a partial shutdown expected at 12:01 a.m. Saturday if no action is taken.

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., suggested there would be a House-wide vote Friday when leaving a closed-door House GOP meeting where leaders presented their plan.

‘I expect that we will be proceeding forward,’ Johnson said. ‘We will not have a government shutdown, and we will meet our obligations for our farmers who need aid, for the disaster victims all over the country and for making sure that military and essential services and everyone who relies upon the federal government for a paycheck is paid over the holidays.’

Meanwhile, the national debt has climbed past $36 trillion, and the deficit is over $1.8 trillion.

Multiple lawmakers told Fox News Digital the forthcoming legislation would extend current government funding levels through mid-March, a measure known as a continuing resolution (CR), paired with just over $100 billion in disaster relief aid for victims of storms Helene and Milton, as well as assistance for the agriculture industry.

Johnson’s aim is to bypass regular House procedures to get the legislation straight to a chamber-wide vote, a maneuver known as ‘suspension of the rules.’

In exchange for the fast track, however, the threshold for passage is raised from a simple majority to two-thirds of the House chamber, meaning Democratic support is critical.

Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., told reporters he believed Johnson struck an agreement with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. A longtime Johnson critic, Massie said he would not vote for the bill.

‘Trump wanted a debt limit increase, and now we’re bringing the exact same bill to the floor without the debt limit increase,’ Massie said.

Another Republican lawmaker argued Johnson would not move forward without Trump’s blessing.

‘We wouldn’t do it if they weren’t,’ Rep. Dan Meuser, R-Pa., said when asked if Trump and Elon Musk were supportive of the deal.

Trump and Musk led the conservative rebellion against the initial plan to avert a partial shutdown, a bipartisan deal that came from negotiations between the top two Democrats and Republicans in both Congressional chambers.

That bill, 1,547 pages, would have extended current government funding levels until March 14. However, GOP hardliners were angered by what they saw as unrelated measures attached to the bill, like a pay raise for congressional lawmakers, health care policy provisions and legislation aimed at revitalizing RFK Stadium in Washington, D.C.

It was scrapped as Trump and Musk threatened to force out of office any lawmaker who did not support pairing a CR with action on the debt limit.

The debt limit is suspended until January 2025 through a prior bipartisan deal, but Trump had pushed for Republicans to act on it now to avoid a messy, protracted fight early in his term.

The second iteration of the funding deal was much slimmer, coming in at 116 pages. It excluded the stadium bill and the congressional pay raise, but still included measures to fund the rebuilding of Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge and disaster aid funding. It also suspended the debt limit through January 2027.

A House vote on the second plan went down in flames, however, after 38 Republicans opposed to raising or suspending the debt limit voted with all but two Democrats to defeat the bill.

Johnson huddled with those holdouts Friday morning, along with Trump’s nominee to lead the Office of Management and Budget, Russell Vought, and Vice President-elect JD Vance. 

The latest plan that’s expected to get a vote does not act on the debt limit, but Johnson pledged in that closed-door meeting to raise the debt limit early next year as part of Republicans’ plans for a massive policy and spending overhaul.

During their closed-door meeting Friday, House GOP leaders unveiled their CR plan as well as a plan to raise the debt limit by $1.5 trillion, followed by $2.5 trillion in net spending cuts, multiple people told Fox News Digital.

It’s still not clear if the bill will sway all the 38 holdouts, however. Many had advocated for a plan to separate the CR from disaster relief and agricultural aid to vote on ‘single-subject’ bills.

But with a partial government shutdown looming just hours away, it appeared House leaders were running out of time to get that done by the end of Friday.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre volleyed away reporters’ questions on Friday about President Biden’s lack of public appearances amid the ongoing government funding fight as a partial shutdown looms. 

Jean-Pierre refused to answer why the president has not spoken to the American public about his position, and she instead blamed Republicans, President-elect Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and their ‘billionaire friends’ like Elon Musk for the chaos on Capitol Hill. 

‘Why hasn’t President Biden said anything in the public about this? Don’t the American people deserve to know why millions of federal workers could enter this holiday period without a paycheck?’ Jean-Pierre was asked during her daily press briefing. 

‘All Americans need to know that Republicans are getting in the way here and they are the ones who have created this mess. That’s the reality. That’s the fact,’ she responded. ‘This is not the first time we’ve been here. And the president has had this approach before. He understands how Congress works. He’s been around for some time. He understands what strategy works here to get this done.’

Jean-Pierre said Friday that Biden has held phone calls with Democratic leaders in Congress — Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. — but would not say if the president has spoken to the House speaker with regard to the ongoing discussions. 

‘He has been getting regular updates from his team. His team has been in touch with congressional members from both sides of the aisle,’ she said. 

A streamlined version of a bill backed by Trump to avert a partial government shutdown failed to pass the House of Representatives on Thursday night.

The bill, which needed two-thirds of the House chamber to pass, failed by a vote of 174 to 235. The national debt has soared to over $36 trillion, and the national deficit is over $1.8 trillion.

Jean-Pierre said Republicans went back on their word and ‘blew up this deal.’

‘Republicans need to stop playing politics with a government shutdown. And they are doing the bidding. They’re doing the bidding of their billionaire friends. That’s what we’re seeing at the expense of hard-working Americans,’ she said. 

‘There is a bipartisan agreement that Republicans tanked because of what they were directed to do by Elon Musk and President-elect Trump. That’s what happened. That is the reality that we’re in now.’

Musk, an outspoken critic of government waste, has weighed in on the spending bill debate and led a conservative revolt against the first 1,547-page bill due to its bloated spending provisions, calling for lawmakers who supported the bill to lose their seats.

He supported the newer, slimmer version, which was ultimately rejected by House members. 

Reporters tried several different ways to try and get Jean-Pierre to comment on the president’s role in the matter, but she continued to sidestep.

‘The president is the President of the United States, and he is leading,’ she told a reporter, to which he responded: ‘To be clear, the strategy is he is leading by staying in the background?’

‘The strategy is that Congress, Republicans in particular, need to do their jobs and get out of their own way and focus on the American people, not their billionaire friends. That is what needs to happen. And that’s what the president wants to see,’ she replied.

Jean-Pierre also warned that a shutdown could disrupt the presidential transition process for the incoming administration.

‘If there is a shutdown — and I don’t want to get too much into hypotheticals — but this is the reality, transition activities will be restricted with limited exceptions, obviously, such as to prevent imminent threats to the safety of human life or the protection of property,’ she said.

Meanwhile, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., said Friday that Republicans have a ‘good plan’ to avoid a partial government shutdown. 

Rep. Stephanie Bice, R-Okla., added: ‘I think you come to an agreement, then you get together and sit down and figure out, you know, if we can get across the finish line. And that’s probably what we’re about to do now.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

JERUSALEM — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan could be on the brink of engulfing Syria in a new war with his slated invasion of the country’s north in an effort to decimate the U.S.-allied Syrian Kurds who helped President-elect Trump defeat the Islamic State in 2019.

The White House-brokered cease-fire between Turkey and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has been largely ignored by pro-Turkey forces and Erdoğan, according to Fox News information from northern Syria. The SDF, which lost 12,000 fighters in its campaign to aid the U.S. in the victory over the Islamic State, is faced with an existential crisis.

An SDF source in northern Syria told Fox News Digital that the Syrian Opposition and the Syrian National Army, both of whom are aligned with Erdoğan’s government, ‘are building up around Kobani from the east and west directions. Assaults on the Tishreen Dam are still taking place intermittently. SDF confront them and push them back continuously. Additionally, the Kobani frontlines are subjected constantly to Turkish armed drones and artillery targeting. No support from any nation. Just the U.S. helping with mediation between us and the Turks aims to have a permanent cease-fire.’

According to the SDF source, ‘The main attackers are called SNA, which constitute the Al Hamza division and Sultan Suliman Shah division, who are loyal to the Turkish MHP party leader Dewlet Bahçelî.’ Erdoğan is aligned with the extremist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

Simone Ledeen, a former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, told Fox News Digital, ‘The U.S. must reinforce support for the SDF — using all available tools to ensure they remain capable on the ground — while addressing the reality that Turkey, our NATO ally, is enabling a rapidly expanding jihadist threat.’ 

When approached by Fox News Digital, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said, ‘Syria is in a fragile state right now. We don’t want to see any party take an action to pursue their own unilateral interests over the broader interests of the Syrian people. We continue to talk to the Government of Türkiye and others in the region about a path forward that de-escalates tensions, not one that escalates them. This is a time to increase stability, not to further devolve into fighting.’

The spokesperson added, ‘Our focus is on promoting a Syrian-led political process in the spirit of U.N. Security Council resolution 2254, while ensuring the enduring defeat of ISIS. Given that we know ISIS exploits instability, it’s incumbent on all countries with influence on the ground — including Türkiye — to promote stability, dialogue, and restraint. The United States supports Syria’s territorial integrity.’

The Biden administration’s alleged failure to rope in Erdoğan aggression could mean the escape of 10,000 Islamic State terrorists held in SDS-run prisons. The SDF has had to redeploy its forces to counter Turkey’s campaign to depopulate northern Syria of SDS fighters. The reemergence of the Islamic State in Syria could adversely affect American security, argue counter-terrorism experts.

Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., declared repeatedly in an address to Erdoğan in Congress, ‘Leave the Kurds alone.’ He added, ‘The Kurds are America’s friends… The people most responsible for helping us, most responsible for destroying ISIS, were the Kurds.’

Kennedy warned Erdoğan, ‘If you invade Syria and touch a hair on the head of the Kurds, I’m going to ask this United States Congress to do something,’ noting, ‘Our sanctions are not going to help the economy of Turkey.’

Turkey’s economy is wobbly, and potent U.S. economic sanctions could destabilize Erdoğan’s government.

When asked about the reports of Turkish-aligned forces attacking Syrian Kurds, a spokesman for Turkey’s Foreign Ministry told Fox News Digital, ‘The mentioned reports are groundless. Türkiye never had a problem with the Syrian Kurds — to the contrary, embraced them and supported them to become part of a unified Syria. The clear distinction should be made between the Syrian Kurds and the ones associated with the terrorist organizations.’

The spokesman added, ‘The continued dedication and sacrifices of Türkiye in the fight against Daesh (ISIS) should not be overlooked. At the end of the day, Türkiye remains as the most credible and capable actor in the region in the fight against Daesh.’ 

Turkey’s government uses Daesh, the transliteration of the Arabic acronym Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), to designate the Sunni Jihadi terrorist movement. 

When confronted with the SDF statement that the U.S.-led mediation efforts collapsed because Turkey failed to accept key points, ‘including the transfer of remaining Manbij Military Council fighters and civilians wishing to move to safer areas within north and eastern Syria, as well as the resolution of the issue concerning the transfer of Suleiman Shah’s remains to their former location,’ the Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman said, ‘It is not Türkiye escalating the situation on the ground, it is the determination of Syrian people to act against the terrorist organization.’

He added, ‘The Syrian people, empowered by the confidence gained from overthrowing the Ba’ath regime, are striving to expel the PKK/YPG/’SDF’ terrorist organization, which has long occupied their territories and subjected them to violence and oppression. They have successfully removed the organization from Manbij and Deir ez-Zor, and are on the verge of doing so in Raqqa. At the end of the day, this is merely the reflection of the will of the Syrian people.’

PKK is an abbreviation for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, an organization classified by the U.S. and the EU as a terrorist entity. The U.S. has a long-standing military alliance with the Syrian Kurdish military organization, The People’s Defense Units (YPG), in Syria. The YPG is part of a broader organization known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and played a key role in dismantling the Islamic State in Syria.

In a growing act of bi-partisan congressional support for the Syrian Kurds, lawmakers are sending messages to the Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration. 

On Wednesday, Sens. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., threatened to impose sanctions on Erdoğan. The senators wrote in a joint statement, ‘While Turkey has some legitimate security concerns that can be addressed, these developments are undermining regional security, and the United States cannot sit idly by.’

‘In the wake of the Assad regime’s fall, Turkish-backed forces have ramped up attacks against our Syrian Kurdish partners, once again threatening the vital mission of preventing the resurgence of ISIS,’ they said.

Several requests for comment from Fox News Digital to President-elect Trump’s spokespeople and his incoming National Security Council adviser, Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla., were not immediately returned.

Shukriya Bradost, an expert on the Kurds, who was born and raised in the Kurdistan region of Iran, told Fox News Digital, ‘Turkey’s most pragmatic option is to engage in dialogue with the Kurdish administration in Syria, facilitated by the United States. A cooperative relationship could serve both Turkish and Kurdish interests, stabilizing the region while addressing Turkey’s security concerns and the experience that Turkey already has with the Kurdistan Region of Government in Iraq (KRG).’ 

She added, ‘Turkey has already shown that it can cooperate with a Kurdish administration in Syria. In the past, oil from northern Syria flowed through KRG into Turkey, demonstrating the potential for economic and political collaboration. This precedent proves that mutual interests can override historical hostilities.’

Bradost recommended that Washington ‘broker a historic agreement that addresses Turkey’s security concerns without dismantling Kurdish autonomy in Syria. Much like the Abraham Accords brought unprecedented diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East, a U.S.-facilitated deal between Turkey and the Syrian Kurds could offer a transformative path forward.’

On Friday, the State Department’s top diplomat for the Middle East, Barbara Leaf, met with representatives of the U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Damascus. HTS and its Islamist allies ousted the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad less than two weeks ago. 

Leaf told reporters after the meeting that there is a cease-fire around Manbij and there are concerns about ‘the effects of fighting near the Tishreen Dam and damage to that dam, especially if it were significant structural damage.’ She added the U.S. is working with Turkish authorities and the SDF for a cease-fire around Kobani. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

The silver price reached highs not seen since 2012 this past year, supported by an ongoing deficit and increasing interest from investors as geopolitical concerns prompted safe-haven buying.

The white metal reached its highest point for the year in October, breaking through US$34 per ounce on the back of a shifting post-pandemic landscape and geopolitical tensions. However, Donald Trumps victory in the US presidential election just a few weeks later buoyed bond yields and the US dollar while weighing on silver and its sister metal gold.

What will 2025 hold for silver? As the new year approaches, investors are closely watching how Trump’s policies and actions could impact the precious metal, along with supply and demand trends in the space.

Here’s what experts see coming for silver in 2025.

How will Trump’s presidency impact silver?

As Trump’s inauguration approaches, speculation is rife about how he could affect the resource industry.

The president-elect ran on a policy of “drill, baby, drill,’ and while his focus was largely on oil and gas companies, mining sector participants have taken it as a positive sign for exploration and development.

Trump’s promise to reduce permitting timelines for anyone making an investment of US$1 billion or more in the US has excited sector members, and could end up being a boon to silver companies in the country.

However, part of the help Trump has promised to mining companies comes from reneging on environmental commitments, including the Paris Agreement. This could end up weighing on silver.

Current President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act includes tax credits and deductions for solar projects, and some experts are concerned that the incoming administration and the new Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could impose reversals or have the entire act gutted.

“Tesla bought SolarCity, which became Tesla Energy. They are an important provider of solar panels. Again, Musk’s new role heading DOGE and obvious close connection to Trump just might help mitigate risks to Tesla and its solar panel/power storage business. If that happens, and whatever form it may take, it could shelter solar panel production and sales in the US to a considerable degree,” Krauth explained via email.

He also noted that Trump’s presidency isn’t without risks and that much uncertainty still remains.

Mind Money CEO Julia Khandoshko also isn’t worried about solar demand in the US.

Silver deficit expected to continue

Industrial segments have been critical for silver demand in recent years.

As of November, the Silver Institute was forecasting total industrial demand of 702 million ounces of silver for 2024, an increase of 7 percent over the 655 million ounces recorded in 2023.

The institute attributes much of this increase to energy transition sectors, highlighting photovoltaics in particular.

However, these gains are coming alongside flat mine production, which is expected to grow only 1 percent to 837 million ounces during 2024. Once factored in, secondary supply from recycling pushes the total supply of silver to 1.03 billion ounces, a considerable gap from the 1.21 billion ounces of total demand.

Both Krauth and Khandoshko think the gap between silver supply and demand will continue.

Khandoshko expressed a similar sentiment, saying demand is likely to keep outpacing supply.

However, she also sees geopolitics and a global macroeconomic situation that could constrain both demand and supply growth in 2025. For example economic difficulties in Europe and China could slow energy transition demand.

“The problem is that silver production is mainly concentrated in geopolitically challenging areas, such as Russia and Kazakhstan, where securing funding for supply expansion is quite difficult,’ she explained.

‘These factors limit silver’s growth potential compared to gold, which in turn benefits from its role as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty.’

Silver M&A set to heat up in 2025

As silver supply becomes increasingly stressed, experts are eyeing projects that are ramping up.

Krauth highlighted Aya Gold and Silver’s (TSX:AYA:OTCQX:AYASF) Zgounder mine expansion. Its first pour was at the end of November, and it is expected to ramp up to full annual output of 8 million ounces in 2025.

Endeavour Silver’s (TSX:EDR,NYSE:EXK) Terronera mine is also nearing completion. Once complete, the mine is expected to produce 15.5 million silver equivalent ounces per year.

For its part, Skeena Resources (TSX:SKE,NYSE:SKE) is working to develop its Eskay Creek project. It is set to come online in 2027, and is expected to bring 9.5 million ounces of silver per year to market in its first five years.

Krauth said a rising silver price is likely good news for mergers and acquisitions in 2025.

“Higher prices, since they translate into higher share prices, meaning acquirers can use their more valuable shares as a currency to acquire others … I think 2024 will bring deals between mid-tiers and between juniors,’ he said.

Krauth added, ‘The truth is that many mid-tier producers have not been spending on exploration. Something has to give, so I think we’ll see this space heat up.’

Investor takeaway

Khandoshko and Krauth have similar silver outlooks for 2025, suggesting a possible pullback.

“Due to supply shortages and increasing demand in the coming months, silver is expected to reach US$35. After this, a slight pullback to US$30 would be possible,” Khandoshko said.

However, after that happens she projects another rise, with silver potentially passing US$50.

Krauth was looking for silver to reach US$35 in 2024, which happened in Q4. Looking forward to 2025, he thinks the white metal will revisit that level in the first quarter, with US$40 or more possible later in the year.

However, he suggested that investors should be cautious of wider economic trends affecting silver.

“There is a serious risk of significant correction in the broader markets and of a recession. A broad market selloff could bleed into silver stocks, even if only temporarily,” Krauth said.

In the case of a recession, a lack of industrial demand could create headwinds for silver. Still, Krauth thinks that could be tempered by government stimulus efforts for green energy and infrastructure.

Overall, 2025 could be a significant year for silver investors. However, geopolitical and economic instability may provide headwinds across the resource sector and could stymie silver’s upward momentum.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Semiconductors are at a crossroads, with innovation fueling growth and tariffs threatening profits.  How might you navigate this potentially volatile landscape and identify opportunities without getting burned?

In 2025, analysts predict AI will drive explosive demand in the semiconductor industry, fueling innovation and revenue growth. At the same time, this optimism is tempered by the new administration’s tariff policies, which threaten to disrupt global supply chains, increase costs, and reshape the competitive landscape for chipmakers.

This tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forecasts is best exemplified by the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) price action, a reliable proxy for the semiconductor industry. Here’s a weekly chart.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF SMH. Congestion narrowing within a wider trading range may indicate that bulls and bears are in temporary equilibrium, with neither buyers nor sellers showing enough conviction to drive a decisive breakout or breakdown. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

There’s a narrowing, range-bound movement between its all-time high near $283 and the swing low of $280 (see blue dotted lines). The increasingly tight congestion range over the last three months, as highlighted by the magenta rectangle, suggests increased indecision among bulls and bears. Despite the temporary standstill, semiconductor stocks are outperforming their tech sector peers (see price performance against XLK) by only 29% and the S&P 500 by 51%.

While AI chip demand will likely see significant growth in the future, the effects of tariffs and reshoring may bring sharp and near-term pain to most chipmakers, particularly semiconductor companies that are most reliant on Asian production. Domestic chipmakers with minimal reliance on overseas manufacturing may fare better under these conditions.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at SMH’s top three holdings—NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)—all of which play a leading role in AI chip development, but have different levels of reliance in the global chip supply chain.

FIGURE 2. PERFCHARTS COMPARING SMH AGAINST ITS TOP THREE HOLDINGS. Note the late jump in AVGO. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

All three of SMH’s top holdings are outperforming their industry peers with NVDA on top, TSM second, and AVGO third. Understanding that late jump in AVGO might require some context (which we’ll get into later).

  • NVDA is the world’s AI chip leader.
  • TSM, is the world’s top chip foundry, and main producer of NVDA’s GPUs.
  • AVGO is a diversified supplier of data center components which are the backbone of AI infrastructure. Unlike NVDA, its business model is less exposed to reshoring effects.

NVIDIA (NVDA): The AI Semiconductor Leader

Take a look at the rounding top pattern on the daily chart.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF NVDA. Rounding tops are bearish, but tend to break higher more than 50% of the time. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

According to Thomas Bulkowski’s Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, while rounding tops are typically viewed as bearish, more than half the time they break upwards, challenging that assumption. In many cases, the rim on the right is higher than the one on the left. In the case above, the rim is formed by a price bounce off the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). 

Both the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are likely to act as strong support unless there is a significant change in the chipmaker’s fundamentals. While NVDA’s uptrend remains intact, momentum seems to be weakening as suggested by the decline in the money flow index (MFI). Keep an eye on this development, especially if it breaks below the 100-day SMA and bounces off the 200-day SMA.

Next, let’s take a look at NVDA’s main chip foundry: TSM.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM): The Foundry

TSM’s daily chart doesn’t look too different from NVDA’s. Remember, TSM is NVDA’s main chip foundry, and so NVDA is highly dependent on TSM (rather than the other way around).

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF TSM. The stock’s price is chugging along with plenty of support. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

You can see the difference between the stock’s volatile rise in price against a gradual decline in the RSI. TSM’s recent price action over the last three months has succumbed to this drop in bullish momentum. 

The stock is reacting strongly to the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, suggesting a high likelihood of bouncing off these levels again should price continue to decline from the current levels.

Broadcom (AVGO): A More Diversified AI and Semiconductor  Play

Broadcom also uses TSM’s foundry services, but it has a few other foundries in Asia and Europe. Because of its wide range of products and its focus on data centers, AVGO is more diversified and less exposed to the same supply chain risks as NVDA. Perhaps this (plus the company’s optimistic 2025 revenue projection) is why its shares have recently outperformed the other two companies above, hitting an all-time high in late December. 

Let’s take a look at AVGO’s daily chart.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF AVGO. The December gap followed strong company guidance. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

AVGO’s uptrend going back to November 2023 runs a similar course to NVDA and TSM. Its uptrend experienced some moments of volatility yet remained relatively sold. Its price fluctuations also reacted strongly to both the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, finding support with both.

However, unlike our previous examples, momentum as measured by the RSI appears steady and somewhat cyclical. To get a clearer view of momentum with volume, I added the On Balance Volume (OBV) with a 50-day SMA overlay which shows that buying pressure has steadily been increasing, fueling AVGO’s ascent, and culminating in the bullish jump in December.

Whether or not price falls to fill the gap, you might wait for RSI to dip below the 50-line to better time an entry if you’re looking to go long.

At the Close

The semiconductor industry faces a dynamic and uncertain 2025, with AI demand poised to spur growth while tariff talks threaten to reshape global supply chains and profit margins. Keeping an eye on SMH and monitoring its top holdings—NVDA, TSM, and AVGO—for shifts in momentum and action at key levels is critical if you’re looking to time your trades in this promising space. 


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Nearly all of our charts currently show deeply oversold conditions. While this is usually a good thing, in a market downturn, it isn’t necessarily your friend. As you can guess, we believe that Wednesday’s big decline was the beginning of something more serious. But the question is, “what about oversold conditions?”

One of the Bear Market Rules that we have is this:

Oversold conditions in a bear market — “thin ice”, no solid foundation for price bounces. Bounces can be bull traps.

Now for certain, we aren’t in a bear market (yet), but we have experienced a serious decline that could lead to more. We are certainly susceptible to a bull trap. How oversold are our indicators? Here are the numbers as of the close on Thursday:

The Swenlin Trading Oscillators have reached deeply oversold territory. However, we wouldn’t get overly excited by an upside reversal. Oscillators must oscillate and they want to be on the zero line. Notice that only 7% have price above their 20-day EMA and a mere 5% of stocks have rising momentum!

The ITBM and ITVM are also oversold. They haven’t hit extremes and could accommodate more downside at this juncture. The big problem on this chart is the very few PMO BUY Signals left in the index.

Finally our Bias chart shows the oversold conditions of %Stocks > 20/50EMAs. %Stocks > 200EMA could definitely see more downside as could the Golden Cross and Silver Cross Indexes. Both of those indexes are below their signal line giving us a BEARISH Bias in the intermediate and long terms.

Conclusion: Oversold conditions are welcome in a bull market or bull market move. The market is still near all-time highs and mega-caps could continue to hold things together, but our thought is that these weak internals are coming home to roost. If not now, then January. Watch out for bull traps!



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Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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