US rare earths stocks

The United States is striving to secure stable domestic supply of REEs outside China, a matter that has become even more pressing in 2025 due to the escalation of the US-China trade war and China’s new rare earth mineral export restrictions.

The nation has vast rare earths reserves and is the second largest global REE producer thanks to its sole operating mine, Mountain Pass. However, it currently lacks sufficient processing facilities.

American rare earths companies are working to address this imbalance, presenting investment opportunities for those looking to capitalize on the market’s growth potential. Learn more about MP Materials, Energy Fuels and NioCorp Developments, the three largest US rare earths stocks by market cap, below.

1. MP Materials (NYSE:MP)

Market cap: US$3.92 billion
Share price: US$23.99

MP Materials, the largest producer of rare earths outside China, focuses on high-purity separated neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, heavy rare earths concentrate, lanthanum and cerium oxides and carbonates.

The company went public in mid-2020 after acquiring the Mountain Pass mine in California, the only operational US-based rare earths mine and processing facility. In Q3 2023, MP Materials began producing separated NdPr, marking a significant milestone. The company plans to increase rare earth oxide production by 50 percent within four years.

In April 2024, MP Materials was awarded US$58.5 million to support construction of the first fully integrated rare earth magnet manufacturing facility in the US. This funding, part of the Section 48C Advanced Energy Project tax credit, was granted by the Internal Revenue Service and US Department of the Treasury after the evaluation of around 250 projects based on their technical and commercial viability, as well as their environmental and community impact.

Located in Fort Worth, Texas, the facility began producing the NdFeB magnets crucial for EVs, wind turbines and defense systems this January with first commercial deliveries expected by the end of the year. MP Materials is sourcing raw materials from its Mountain Pass mine for an end-to-end supply chain with integrated recycling.

MP released its full year 2024 results on February 20, 2025, reporting record production of NdPr oxide at 1,294 metric tons (MT) and rare earth oxides (REO) in concentrate production at 45,455 MT.

2. Energy Fuels (NYSEAMERICAN:UUUU,TSX:EFR)

Market cap: US$725.33 million
Share price: US$3.45

Energy Fuels is a leading US uranium and rare earths company that operates key uranium production centers, including the White Mesa mill in Utah and the Nichols Ranch and Alta Mesa projects in Wyoming and Texas. It acquired the Bahia rare

The company finished construction of Phase 1 REE separation infrastructure at White Mesa in early 2024, and in June reported successful commercial production of separated NdPr that meets the specifications required for REE-based alloy manufacturing. The company believes it is the first US company in decades to achieve commercial-scale, on-spec rare earths separation from monazite. The Phase 1 REE separation circuit is now operating at full capacity.

Following its 2023 acquisition of the Bahia heavy mineral sands project in Brazil, Energy Fuels made multiple deals in 2024 with the aim of acquiring feedstock for White Mesa.

In early June of last year, Energy Fuels executed a joint venture that gives it the option to earn a 49 percent stake in Astron’s (ASX:ATR) Donald rare earths and mineral sands project in Victoria, Australia. Donald is expected to begin production as early as 2026, and will supply the White Mesa mill with 7,000 to 8,000 MT of monazite sand in rare earths concentrate annually in Phase 1, with plans to expand output in subsequent phases.

In October 2024, Energy Fuels acquired Australian mineral sands company Base Resources, which owns the Toliara project in Madagascar. According to the company, the Bahia, Donald and Toliara projects ‘have the combined ability to produce up to 43,000 metric tons of monazite per year.’

In its 2024 financial results for the year ending December 31, 2024, Energy Fuels reported production of about 38,000 kilograms of separated NdPr from its REE separation circuit at the White Mesa Mill.

Energy Fuels inked a memorandum of understanding with South Korea-based POSCO in mid-March for the potential creation of a non-China REE supply chain for EVs and hybrid EV drivetrains for US, EU, Japanese and South Korean auto markets.

3. NioCorp Developments (NASDAQ:NB)

Market cap: US$94.1 million
Share price: US$2.01

NioCorp Developments is advancing its Elk Creek project in Nebraska, which features North America’s highest-grade niobium deposit under development, with significant scandium production capacity.

An updated 2022 feasibility study highlights an extended mine life, improved ore grades and enhanced economics for niobium, scandium and titanium. Metallurgical testing has demonstrated the asset’s ability to produce high-purity magnetic rare earth oxides at a recovery rate of 92 percent or higher.

In April 2024, NioCorp announced plans to explore the feasibility of integrating the recycling of permanent rare earth magnets into its proposed Elk Creek critical minerals project in Southeast Nebraska. An assessment will be undertaken to better understand the technical and commercial viability of recycling post-consumer NdFeB magnets back into separated rare earth oxides, which could then be utilized in the production of new NdFeB magnets.

The initial phase of this investigation involved bench-scale testing and was successfully completed in October 2024.

The Elk Creek project is fully permitted for construction. NioCorp is working to secure financing to move the project forward, and the US Export-Import Bank advanced its application for financing to its next stage of due diligence in February.

Canadian rare earths stocks

As part of Canada’s Critical Minerals Strategy, the government has allocated C$3.8 billion in federal funding for opportunities across the critical minerals value chain, from exploration to recycling. REEs are among the minerals listed as critical.

Additionally, the government has designated C$7.5 million to support the establishment of a rare earths processing facility in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. In mid-September 2024, the Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) announced that the facility reached commercial-scale production, making it the first in North America to achieve this milestone. The SRC plans to produce 400 MT annually by early 2025.

Learn about Aclara Resources, Ucore Rare Metals and Mkango Resources, the three largest Canada-listed rare earth stocks by market cap, below.

1. Aclara Resources (TSX:ARA)

Market cap: C$106.68 million
Share price: C$0.53

Aclara Resources is advancing its Penco Module project in Chile, characterized by ionic clays abundant in heavy rare earths. Its objective is to generate rare earths concentrate via an environmentally friendly extraction process. This approach aims to eliminate the need for a tailings facility, minimize water use and ensure the absence of radioactivity in the final product.

Aclara and Vacuumschmelze penned a memorandum of understanding in early July 2024 to jointly pursue a ‘mine-to-magnets’ solution for ESG-compliant permanent magnets. The partnership seeks to develop a resilient, ESG-focused supply chain for these critical components.

Aclara successfully concluded a semi-industrial pilot plant program for Penco Module in 2023, yielding 107 kilograms of wet high-purity heavy rare earths concentrate from 120 MT of ionic clays.

The company submitted a new environmental impact assessment (EIA) for the project in June 2024 that features an improved design addressing environmental and social concerns, and it moved to the next stage in August. At the end of March 2025, it submitted a further report addressing technical observations and comments on its EIA from government agencies and local stakeholders, respectively.

Aclara is also advancing its Carina Module project in Brazil, which it discovered in 2023. In December of that year, Aclara disclosed an initial inferred resource for the project, saying it encompasses approximately 168 million MT grading 1,510 parts per million total rare earth oxides and 477 parts per million desorbable rare earth oxides.

In August 2024, Aclara released an updated preliminary economic assessment for Carina Module featuring initial capital costs of US$593 million and sustaining capital costs of US$86 million. Later in the month, the company signed a memorandum of understanding with the State of Goiás and Nova Roma to expedite the Carina Module project, emphasizing its importance for local development and Brazil’s critical minerals supply.

Aclara says it is fully financed to pursue its aims of achieving production by 2028. Its plans for 2025 include progressing permitting at both its rare earth projects, starting pilot plant activities at Carina by Q2 2025 and completing a pre-feasibility study by Q3 2025.

2. Mkango Resources (TSXV:MKA)

Market cap: C$84.83 million
Share price: C$0.32

Mkango Resources is positioning itself to be a leader in the production of recycled rare earth magnets, alloys and oxides via its 79.4 percent stake in Maginito with partner CoTec Holdings (TSXV:CTH,OTCQB:CTHCF).

Its mineral assets include the Songwe Hill rare earths project in Malawi, which is targeting neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium, and its Pulawy rare earths separation project in Poland. The company also holds a diverse exploration portfolio in Malawi.

At the end of July 2024, Mkango’s wholly owned subsidiaries and the government of Malawi signed a mining development agreement for the Songwe rare earths project confirming the fiscal terms for its development, including a 10 percent interest to Malawi’s government and exemption from custom and excise duties imports and exports.

Maginito owns HyProMag, a firm focusing on rare earth magnet recycling. HyProMag is the licensee of the Hydrogen Processing of Magnet Scrap (HPMS) process, which demagnetizes and liberates rare earth magnets from scrap.

A pilot plant using a long-loop recycling process underpinned by the HPMS process was commissioned in July 2024, and commercial operations are anticipated to start in Q1 2025. Additionally, Maginito is expanding HyProMag’s recycling technology to the US through the joint venture HyProMag USA, with a positive feasibility study completed in November 2024. While the feasibility study was based on two HPMS vessels, HyProMag announced in March 2025 that conceptual studies are underway to expand the capacity to three vessels and the addition of ‘long-loop chemical processing’ to compliment the HPMS short-loop recycling process.

In an August 2024 update for investors, Mkango reported that HyProMag will receive 350,125 euros to develop its eco-friendly NeoLeach technology, which will further upgrade metals recovered with HPMS. The funding is part of the 8 million euro GREENE project from the European Commission’s Horizon Europe Programme, which aims to improve the resource efficiency and performance of rare earth permanent magnets.

Mkango completed a C$4.11 million private placement in early February 2025 to help fund the advancement of its rare earth magnet recycling projects in the UK and Germany. The next month, the company provided an update on the construction of its UK magnet recycling and manufacturing facility, which is on track to begin initial commercial production by the end of Q2 2025.

In late March 2025, the European Commission designated Mkango’s Pulawy project in Poland as a strategic project under the Critical Raw Materials Act.

3. Ucore Rare Metals (TSXV:UCU)

Market cap: C$77.1 million
Share price: C$1.06

Ucore Rare Metals is focused on the exploration and separation of rare earths in Canada and the US. The company owns the Bokan-Dotson Ridge rare earths project in Alaska and is developing a strategic metals complex for processing heavy and light rare earths in Louisiana. Ucore acquired an 80,800 square foot brownfields facility in Alexandria, Louisiana, for developing its first commercial REE processing facility in January 2024.

In Canada, Ucore’s Ontario-based RapidSX demonstration plant, operated by Kingston Process Metallurgy, was commissioned to evaluate the techno-economic advantages, scalability and commercial viability of the RapidSX technology platform for separating and producing REEs like praseodymium, neodymium, terbium and dysprosium. This initiative was supported by a US$4 million award from the US Department of Defense, granted to Ucore’s subsidiary, Innovation Metals.

In late April 2024, Ucore reported that it tested a mixed rare earths carbonate from Defense Metals’ (TSXV:DEFN,OTCQB:DFMTF) Wicheeda project and confirmed it was suitable for commercial-scale processing at Ucore’s planned facilities. According to the release, ‘(Wicheeda) is a source of material that can become a fundamental economic and technical component to Ucore’s plan of developing multiple SMC’s across North America.’

On July 9 2024, Ucore announced the execution of a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Cyclic Materials that aims to to qualify Cyclic’s recycled rare earth oxide product in Ucore’s process. This will start with the use of initial trial quantities from Cyclic to support Ucore’s rare earths demonstration program at its RapidSX facility. The agreement positions Cyclic Materials as a potential long-term source for Ucore’s planned facilities in the US and Canada.

In mid-August 2024, Ucore and Meteoric Resources (ASX:MEI,OTC Pink:METOF) signed a memorandum of understanding for Meteoric to supply 3,000 MT of total rare earth oxides from its Caldeira project in Brazil to Ucore’s Louisiana strategic metals complex. A similar deal was established with Australia’s ABx Group (ASX:ABX) in early September. It will see ABx supply Ucore with mixed rare earth carbonates from its ionic adsorption clay rare earths resource in Northern Tasmania.

At the start of 2025, Ucore was awarded C$500,000 via its partnership with Ontario’s Critical Minerals Innovation Fund to help finance the advancement of the company’s RapidSX Commercial Demonstration Facility.

Australian rare earths stocks

Australia ranks among the globe’s top rare earths producers and possesses the fourth largest rare earths reserves. The nation is notable for hosting the largest supplier of rare earths outside of China.

Learn more about Lynas Rare Earths, Iluka Resources and Arafura Resources, the three largest ASX-listed rare earths stocks focused stocks by market cap.

1. Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC)

Market cap: AU$6.83 billion
Share price: AU$7.54

Well-known ASX-listed rare earths stock Lynas Rare Earths is the leading separated rare earths producer outside of China, with operations in Australia, Malaysia and the US. In Western Australia, Lynas operates the Mount Weld mine and concentrator and is ramping up processing at its Kalgoorlie rare earths processing facility.

In mid-2023, Lynas received AU$20 million from the Australian government’s Modern Manufacturing Initiative. This funding supports the Apatite leach circuit project at Lynas’ Kalgoorlie facility.

The company marked a pivotal moment in December 2023, when the Kalgoorlie facility achieved its first production milestone, signaling the transition from commissioning to full-scale operations. Additionally, Lynas is establishing a light rare earths processing facility and a heavy rare earths separation facility in Texas, US.

The company processes mined material at its separation facility in Malaysia. In late June 2024, Lynas announced plans to begin production of separated dysprosium and terbium products at its Malaysian operations in the 2025 calendar year.

In August, the firm reported a 92 percent increase in mineral resources and a 63 percent rise in ore reserves at the Mount Weld site. According to the company, mineral resources have expanded from 55.4 million MT to 106.6 million MT at a grade of 4.12 percent total rare earth oxides; meanwhile, ore reserves have grown from 19.7 million MT to 32 million MT at a grade of 6.44 percent total rare earth oxides.

The new estimates include significant increases in contained heavy rare earths and support a mine life of over 20 years at expanded production rates. Additionally, stored tailings were added to the ore reserves as the operations have the ability to reprocess them to recover additional rare earth minerals.

Lynas’ new large-scale downstream Kalgoorlie rare earths processing facility came online in November 2024. According to the company, the facility is a key part of its 2025 growth plan.

In its H1 2025 fiscal year results, Lynas reported sales revenue of AU$254.3 million an increase of AU$19.5 million year-over-year despite a decrease in average China domestic NdPr prices. CEO Amanda Lacaze attributed this to a 22 percent increase in NdPr production volume.

2. Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU)

Market cap: AU$1.55 billion
Share price: AU$4.42

Iluka Resources is advancing its Eneabba rare earths refinery in Western Australia with backing from the Australian government, which aims to bolster the country’s footprint in the global rare earths market by tapping into its abundant reserves. The company also owns zircon operations in Australia, including Jacinth-Ambrosia, the world’s largest zircon mine.

Iluka secured an AU$1.25 billion non-recourse loan for Eneabba under the AU$2 billion Critical Minerals Facility administered by Export Finance Australia, and the Australian government agreed to an additional AU$400 million in funding in December 2024.

This funding will support the development of Eneabba as a fully integrated refinery capable of producing both light and heavy separated rare earth oxides. The facility will process material from Iluka’s own feedstocks and third-party suppliers, with initial production expected to commence by 2027.

Additionally, Iluka is progressing its Wimmera project in Victoria, focusing on mining and beneficiation of fine-grained heavy mineral sands in the Murray Basin. This project aims to supply zircon and rare earths over the long term. A definitive feasibility study for Wimmera is scheduled for completion by the end of 2025.

On February 19, 2025, Iluka released its 2024 full year results, which included AU$1.13 billion in revenue, a year-over-year decrease of 9 percent. Looking forward, the company stated, ‘The implementation of tariffs on Chinese imports in Europe and other regions – considered favourable to Iluka’s customers – is expected to impact trade flows from H1 2025.’

3. Arafura Resources (ASX:ARU)

Market cap: AU$381.97 million
Share price: AU$0.16

Arafura Resources, an Australian rare earths firm, has secured government funding to advance its Nolans rare earths project in the Northern Territory. Arafura is currently working toward a final investment decision for Nolans, which is shovel ready.

Nolans is envisioned as a vertically integrated operation with on-site processing facilities.

A 2022 mine report updates Nolans’ expected lifespan to 38 years, targeting an annual production capacity of 4,440 MT of NdPr concentrate. The project’s definitive feasibility study highlights significant concentrations of neodymium and praseodymium, alongside all other rare earths in varying quantities.

Arafura has inked binding offtake agreements with Hyundai Motors (KRX:005380), Kia (KRX:000270) and Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy. Additionally, the company has a non-binding memorandum of understanding with GE Vernova’s (NYSE:GEV) GE Renewable Energy to collaborate on establishing sustainable rare earths supply chains.

In its update for the June 2024 quarter, Arafura said it had secured conditional approval for over US$1 billion in debt funding for the Nolans project.

In late August 2024, Arafura signed a memorandum of understanding with Canada’s SRC to process rare earths from Arafura’s Nolans project into dysprosium and terbium oxides at SRC’s facility in Saskatchewan. The collaboration aims to support global supply chain diversification for energy transition technologies.

The company received a AU$200 million investment commitment from Australia’s National Reconstruction Fund in January 2025. Arafura stated in the press release that it is expecting to make a final investment decision in the first half of 2025.

In March 2025, Arafura announced a binding offtake agreement with Traxys Europe in which Arafura will supply a minimum of 100 MT per year of NdPr oxide over a five-year term from the Nolans project. Arafura has the option to increase the offtake to a maximum of 300 MT per year at its discretion.

Yearly central bank gold purchases since 2019.

Chart via the WGC.

Twenty-nine percent of the WGC’s survey respondents indicated plans to grow their gold reserves, up 5 percent from the previous year. Three percent reported their institution is planning to decrease its gold holdings, which was unchanged from the previous year.

The WGC believes that central bank gold purchases will continue to be a major driver of gold demand in 2025.

1. United States

Gold reserves: 8,133.46 MT

When it comes to the largest gold depository in the world, the American central bank is number one with 8,133.46 MT.

A large percentage of US gold is held in “deep storage” in Denver, Fort Knox and West Point. As the US Treasury explains, deep storage is “that portion of the US Government-owned gold bullion reserve which the Mint secures in sealed vaults that are examined annually by the Treasury Department’s Office of the Inspector General and consists primarily of gold bars.”

The rest of US-owned reserves are held as working stock, which the country’s mint uses as raw material to mint congressionally authorized coins.

2. Germany

Gold reserves: 3,351.53 MT

The Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, currently owns 3,351.53 MT of gold. Like many of the central banks on this list, the German national bank stores over half of its stock in foreign locations in New York, London and France.

The Bundesbank’s foreign gold reserves came into question in 2012, when the German Federal Court of Auditors, the Bundesrechnungshof, was openly critical of the Bundesbank’s gold auditing.

In response, the German bank issued a public statement defending the security of foreign banks. Privately, the Bundesbank then began the arduous process of repatriating its gold stock back to German soil. By 2016, more than 583 MT of gold had been transferred back to Germany.

Nearly half of Germany’s gold holdings are stored in Frankfurt, while more than a third are in New York, an eighth of its holdings are in London, and a miniscule amount are held in in Paris.

The economic upheaval and geopolitical volatility brought about by US President Donald Trump’s tariff wars and adversarial posturing toward Europe led Germany to consider further repatriating its gold, reported The Telegraph in April 2025. About 1,200 metric tons of Germany’s gold holdings are stored in the vaults of the New York Federal Reserve in Manhattan.

3. Italy

Gold reserves: 2,451.84 MT

Banca d’Italia, the national bank of Italy, began amassing its gold in 1893, when three separate financial institutions merged into one. From there, its 78 MT slowly grew into the 2,451.84 MT the country now owns.

Like Germany, Italy stores parts of its reserves offshore. In total, 141.2 MT are located in the UK, 149.3 are in Switzerland and 1,061 are kept in the US Federal Reserve. Italy houses 1,100 MT of gold domestically.

4. France

Gold reserves: 2,437 MT

The Banque de France has 2,437 MT of gold reserves, all of which it keeps on hand. The precious metal is stored in the bank’s secure underground vault, dubbed La Souterraine, which is located 27 meters below street level.

La Souterraine’s gold vaults are one of the four designated gold depositories of the International Monetary Fund.

According to Investopedia, the collapse of the Bretton Woods gold standard system was in part due to former French President Charles de Gaulle, who “called the U.S. bluff and began actually trading dollars in for gold from the Fort Knox reserves.” At the time, US President Richard Nixon “was forced to take the U.S. off the gold standard, ending the dollar’s automatic convertibility into gold.”

5. Russia

Gold reserves: 2,332.74 MT*

The Bank of Russia is the official central bank of the Russian Federation and owns 2,332.74 MT of gold. Like France, Russia’s central bank has opted to store all its physical gold domestically. The Bank of Russia stores two-thirds of its gold reserves in a bank building in Moscow, and the remaining one-third in Saint Petersburg.

The majority of the yellow metal is in the form of large, variable-weight standard gold bars weighing between 10 and 14 kilograms. There are also smaller bars on site weighing as much as 1 kilogram each.

Russia, which is the second largest gold producer by country, has been a steady purchaser of the precious metal since roughly 2007, with sales ramping up significantly between 2015 and 2020. However, Russia’s refineries were banned from selling gold bullion into the London market following the country’s invasion of Ukraine. Sanctions by the west also include a freeze on about half of Russia’s gold reserves.

In early 2022, Russia tied its currency, the ruble, to the yellow metal. ‘The plan was to shift the currency away from a pegged value and into the gold standard itself so the ruble would become a credible gold substitute at a fixed rate,’ according to Robert Huish, an Associate Professor in International Development Studies at Dalhousie University.

*This figure does not reflect year-end 2024, including the at least 3.1 MT purchased in 2024, per the WGC, which is awaiting further data to update the 2024 total.

6. China

Gold reserves: 2,279.56 MT

The central bank for Mainland China is the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), located in Beijing. According to the WGC, the national financial institute stores 2,279.56 MT of gold, most which has been purchased since 2000. In 2001, the PBoC had 400 MT of gold in reserve, but in just a little more than two decades that total has climbed by 459 percent.

The PBoC issues the Panda gold coin, which was first created in 1982. The Panda coin is now one of the top five bullion coins issued by a central bank. It is among the ranks of the American Eagle, Canadian Maple Leaf, South African Krugerrand and Australian Gold Nugget.

The PBoC was one of the top gold buyers out the world’s central banks for 2024, purchasing another 44 MT of gold during the year. April 2024 marked the 18th consecutive month of gold buying for China’s central bank, which paused its purchases afterward until picking them up again in November.

7. Switzerland

Gold reserves: 1,039.94 MT

Holding the seventh largest central bank gold reserves is the Swiss National Bank. Its 1,039.94 MT of gold are owned by the state of Switzerland, but the central bank manages and maintains the reserve.

After years of opaqueness regarding the country’s golden treasure trove, the Swiss Gold Initiative, or Save our Swiss Gold campaign, was launched in 2011.

The publicity culminated in a national referendum in 2014, asking citizens to vote on three proposals. The first was a mandate for all reserve gold to be held physically in Switzerland. The other two dealt with the central bank’s ability to sell its gold reserves, along with a decree that 20 percent of the Swiss bank’s assets be held in gold.

The referendum was unsuccessful, but did prompt the bank to be more transparent. In a 2013 release, the central bank reported that 70 percent of its gold reserve was held domestically, 20 percent was located at the Bank of England and 10 percent was stored with the Bank of Canada.

8. India

Gold reserves: 876.18 MT

The Reserve Bank of India is another central bank that has fervently acted to increase its holdings in recent years. It began adding to its gold assets in 2017; however, the majority of its purchases have taken place in the past four years.

Strikingly, after India’s central bank purchased 16 MT of gold in 2023, the institution scooped up another 72 MT of the precious metal in 2024.

While more than half of its gold is held overseas in safe custody with the Bank of England and the Bank of International Settlements, about a third of its gold is held domestically. In June 2024, India repatriated 100 MT of gold from the United Kingdom. This was the first time since 1991 that the Reserve Bank of India moved its overseas gold holdings back home.

9. Japan

Gold reserves: 845.97 MT

Public information about the Bank of Japan’s gold reserves is hard to come by. In 2000, the island nation was holding approximately 753 MT of the yellow metal. By 2004, the Bank of Japan’s gold store had grown to 765.2 MT, and remained at that level until March 2021, when the country purchased 80.76 MT of gold.

10. Netherlands

Gold reserves: 612.45 MT

Rounding out this list of the top central bank gold reserves is the Dutch National Bank (DNB), the central bank of the Netherlands. Like Switzerland, the Dutch central bank stores as much as 38 percent of its gold in Canada’s national reserve. Another 31 percent, in the form of 15,000 gold bars, is held in a domestic vault, while the remaining 31 percent is located in New York’s Federal Reserve bank.

In a report, the DNB describes gold as the supreme safe-haven asset. “Central banks such as DNB have therefore traditionally had a lot of gold in stock. After all, gold is the ultimate nest egg: the trust anchor for the financial system,” it reads. “If the entire system collapses, the gold supply provides collateral to start over. Gold gives confidence in the strength of the central bank’s balance sheet. That gives a safe feeling.”

*11. International Monetary Fund

Gold reserves: 2,814.1 MT

The gold reserve held by the International Monetary Fund is the third largest in terms of size. The large gold reserve was amassed primarily during the founding of the international organization in 1944.

In that inaugural year, it was decided that “25 percent of initial quota subscriptions and subsequent quota increases were to be paid in gold.”

Since 1944, the International Monetary Fund has added gold through the repayment of debts owed by member countries. Nations can also exchange gold for another member country’s currency.

What happened to the gold price in Q1?

Gold began the year at US$2,658.04 per ounce on January 2, and continued to rise throughout the first month of the year, reaching US$2,710.30 during Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

Gold price, January 2 to April 7, 2025.

Chart via Trading Economics.

Its upward trajectory accelerated in February. Gold climbed above the US$2,800 mark on February 3, broke through US$2,900 on February 10 and reached a monthly high of US$2,949.90 on February 24.

The metal retracted before the start of March, falling to US$2,856.90 on February 28.

However, March brought more excitement for investors as the price once again started to climb, rising above the US$2,900 mark by March 4. Gold continued to set records during the month, closing above US$3,000 on March 18 and then establishing a new record of over US$3,165 in early April.

Gold had once again dipped below the US$3,000 mark as of April’s second week.

Gold and Trump’s tariff threats

When Trump won the US election, analysts widely predicted his presidency would be defined by chaos.

Much of his first presidential term saw him challenge standard operating procedures on diplomacy and rhetoric, but he was largely constrained by experienced Washington insiders.

During his second term, Trump has chosen to surround himself with loyalists who agree on policy direction.

The first quarter brought about destabilization in world financial markets as Trump threatened to impose sweeping 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, its longtime trade partners. According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, trade between the three countries totaled over US$1.5 trillion in 2022.

Initially Trump was demanding that Canada and Mexico tighten border rules to prevent the flow of migrants and fentanyl into the US. However, he also suggested that the tariff threat stemmed from trade deficits.

The first of Trump’s threats came on February 1, when his administration applied tariffs to imports from Canada and Mexico; he walked them back two days later, saying he would delay them until March. When the March deadline arrived, the US once again imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but then retracted them, suggesting they would be added on April 2, when the US was also planning broader reciprocal tariffs against all countries.

“There has been a huge spike in the movement of physical gold from around the world into US depositories. This seems to have been driven by the global political stress and potential tariff impacts. The amounts involved have caused disruption in the real demand and promoted new buyers as well,’ he said.

These movements created significant price differences between the London and New York markets, as UK buyers worried about a shortage of physical gold, while US banks sought to exploit the price gap.

Geopolitical conflicts creating tension

With Russia-Ukraine tensions remaining high and a Middle East conflict that seems poised to boil over, gold investors have responded by seeking the relative safety of physical and liquid assets.

“Broader global political tension, the Middle East conflicts and the Ukraine invasion all add uncertainty, and none of these should be ignored. All those inputs are real and do not look like they will abate anytime soon,” said Barrett.

Both major conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East show no signs of easing.

A ceasefire negotiated between Israel and Hamas earlier this year has collapsed since the beginning of March.

This has led to a serious escalation, with Israel attacking more targets in Gaza and the US increasing its strikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. The US has also begun more troop and equipment movements into the region, and some analysts believe it is preparing for direct action against Iran. This sentiment was reinforced when Trump stated, “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing,” during a call with NBC News on March 30.

The three year war between Russia and Ukraine continues with no end in sight. While it seems that both sides have accepted a ceasefire, the final terms and how it will be implemented remain uncertain.

In recent weeks, Russia has intensified its attacks on Ukraine, targeting critical infrastructure and civilian areas. This has drawn Trump’s ire, and he threatened oil and gas tariffs on Russia during his NBC interview.

Gold’s foundational drivers still present

Central banks have been a major gold price driver over the past few years, and data published by the World Gold Council on March 4 indicates that they remained active during the first month of the year.

In January, they added more than 18 metric tons of gold to their reserves.

Uzbekistan’s central bank led the way with 8 metric tons, while the People’s Bank of China contributed 5 metric tons, increasing its official total to 2,285 metric tons. The National Bank of Kazakhstan added 4 metric tons.

Barrett explained that central bank purchases have been crucial to gold’s increases over the past decade.

“Since late 2015, gold has risen from approximately US$1,000 to the present record highs above US$3,000, and central banks have bought up 10,000 metric tons, depending on who you ask. This demand removes supply from the market; they are the ultimate buy-and-hold participants — this has been the real driver for gold,” he said.

For her part, Khandoshko does not view central bank purchasing as significant in the current environment.

“The more important factor here is their monetary policies. Despite attempts to maintain a conservative stance, it is evident that the cycle of interest rate cuts is already underway,” she said.

Lower interest rates have long been correlated with increased gold buying from investors.

In another report, the World Gold Council states that physically backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw US$9.4 billion in inflows during February, the strongest since March 2022.

February also marked the third consecutive positive month of ‘strong global inflows.’

Overall, assets under management for these ETFs rose by 4.1 percent to US$306 billion, with collective holdings increasing by 3.1 percent to 3,353 metric tons, the highest month-end level since July 2023.

Gold price outlook for 2025

Among the factors that could provide fresh tailwinds for gold is a new pilot program from the National Financial Regulatory Administration of China. It allows 10 insurance companies to invest in gold.

“Given the recent price rise, the global backdrop and the huge Chinese population, this may develop into a strong driver,” Barrett said. The program permits the designated insurance companies to allocate up to 1 percent of their assets to bullion, which could translate into US$27.4 billion in new gold investments.

Barrett emphasized the importance of monitoring the main drivers in the gold market.

“Clarity on the Trump administration’s tariff policy, even its overall economic plan, may alleviate some physical demand as well as those concerned about the need for a hedge,” he said.

Although he noted that conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are unlikely to change due to their complexity, he suggested that relief from ceasefires or a reduction in violence could help diminish investor anxiety.

Khandoshko mentioned that as long as geopolitical turmoil, economic instability and currency devaluation persist, the gold price will continue to benefit as these elements are driving its momentum.

“This surge over the US$3,000 mark is just the beginning,’ she said.

‘The yellow metal will continue to increase in price, setting new records. What we are witnessing is not a temporary spike, but a lasting shift in the market. With this breakthrough, a significant pullback seems unlikely. Corrections and volatility may occur, but the market has entered a new era, one that is here to stay.’

Lithium market continuing to rebalance

Over the last five years, annual global lithium carbonate production has ballooned, rising from 82,000 metric tons in 2020 to 240,000 metric tons in 2024, representing a 192 percent increase.

As output more than doubled, demand failed to keep pace, leading to massive market oversupply.

In a February report, Fastmarkets analysts note that the lithium market saw an estimated surplus of 175,000 metric tons in 2023 and 154,000 metric tons in 2024.

The firm expects this surplus to continue contracting in 2025, with experts anticipating a much tighter balance ahead. They see a surplus of just 10,000 metric tons in 2025 followed by a 1,500 metric ton deficit in 2026.

This sentiment was echoed by Adam Webb, head of battery raw materials at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, during a market overview at the Benchmark Summit, held in Toronto in early March.

“We’re expecting this year for the market to remain in surplus,” he said. A 2025 surplus paired with high inventory levels from the previous two years is expected to impede price movement.

“Our expectation for this year is that lithium carbonate prices will remain about where they are, US$10,400 per metric ton,” Webb told attendees. “But if we look further ahead, from 2026 onwards, that market is switching into the deficit, albeit quite small to start with, and that will end up being supportive of prices.”

As Webb explained, prices need to find some support because current levels are unsustainable.

“I think we’ve more or less hit the bottom,” he said told the audience while pointing to a chart showcasing the all-in sustaining cost curve for lithium in 2025. Webb added that at the current price level of US$10,400 per metric ton, ‘about a third of the industry currently is not profitable. So prices can’t move much lower, because that’s going to put even more production under pressure, and you can see more supply come offline.’

Stifled, stranded and shuttered supply

The sharp decline in lithium prices has already compelled various lithium-mining companies to curtail production, delay expansion plans and implement workforce reductions.

In August 2024, Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS,OTC Pink:PILBF) reported an 89 percent year-on-year drop in annual net income and deferred plans to create the world’s largest lithium mine. The company also said it would reduce its capital expenditures to between AU$615 million and AU$685 million for the current financial year.

This past February, Albemarle (NYSE:ALB) halted expansion plans for its Kemerton plant in Western Australia and mothballed its Chengdu lithium hydroxide plant in China, citing prolonged low prices. The company also reduced its 2025 capital expenditure forecast by US$100 million, to US$700 million to US$800 million.

Additionally, Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN,OTC Pink:MALRF) mothballed its Bald Hill operations in December, and Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) has scaled back its production targets for the Kathleen Valley lithium project in response to prolonged low lithium prices. The company now plans to reach a production rate of 2.8 million metric tons per year by the end of its 2027 fiscal year — pushing back its earlier goal of hitting 3 million metric tons by Q1 2025.

The broad market weakness in the lithium sector has also led to some deals.

In early March, mining major Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) completed its US$6.7 billion purchase of Arcadium Lithium. Through the deal, Rio Tinto has acquired several lithium carbonate projects in Argentina, as well as lithium hydroxide production capacity in the US, Japan and China. The company is aiming to increase its lithium carbonate equivalent production capacity to over 200,000 metric tons annually by 2028.

Also in March, Lithium Americas (TSX:LAC,NYSE:LAC) secured a US$250 million investment from Orion Resource Partners to support the development and construction of Phase 1 of its Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada.

The funding package is expected to fully cover project and corporate costs through the construction phase, with completion of Phase 1 targeted for late 2027.

Earlier in the quarter, Standard Lithium (TSXV:SLI,NYSE:A:SLI) and Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) announced that their joint venture, SWA Lithium, had received a US$225 million grant from the US Department of Energy. The funding is earmarked for the construction of Phase 1 of the South West Arkansas lithium project.

Battery sector growth key to long-term lithium recovery

The largest factor behind lithium market oversupply has been the gap between projected and actual EV demand. Ambitious projections about EV adoption through the 2020s led producers to ramp up lithium output in anticipation of a surge in EV sales; however, EV adoption has been slower than expected, leading to excess supply.

“(In 2024), EV growth was slower than had been expected, but actually it still grew significantly globally,” said Webb. “But there were really important regional differences in that growth.” He went on to explain that China’s EV market saw a 36 percent year-on-year increase, with plug-in hybrids making up 40 percent of sales.

In contrast, EV sales in Europe declined by 4 percent, largely due to subsidy cuts in Germany. North America experienced 8 percent growth, albeit from a smaller base, Webb added.

“China will remain the biggest growth market (over the next decade),” he said. “But in the EU we’re expecting six times the number of sales in 10 years, and here in North America seven times.”

The lithium market is also expected to benefit from higher energy storage system demand, which is set to increase from US$251.14 billion in 2024 to US$271.73 billion in 2025. In 2024, the energy storage system segment contributed to a 28 percent year-on-year increase in battery demand, according to the Benchmark analyst.

“Looking out 10 years, it’s still quite a rosy picture, really — a 15 percent CAGR out to 2035 — and that translates to more demand for the raw materials that go into these batteries,” said Webb.

Additionally, this expansion has been impacted by economies of scale, which have sent battery cell prices to record lows — they averaged US$73 per kilowatt-hour in 2023 and hit US$63.50 kilowatt-hour in December.

Reduced battery costs could offer long-term support to the demand narrative by helping to drive down the cost of EVs and energy storage systems.

Energy storage demand a potential major catalyst

The rapid growth in energy storage was also underscored by Ernis Ortiz, president and CEO of Lithium Royalty (TSX:LIRC,OTC Pink:LITRF) and a panelist at the Benchmark Summit.

When asked if there will be enough future supply to meet demand projections, Ortiz was optimistic.

“I do think there will be enough supply, but at a price,” he said.

“So you need prices to rise in order to incentivize that new supply response.”

He went on to explain that in 2025, lithium supply growth is projected at approximately 17 percent, but with energy storage demand potentially doubling, that sector alone could absorb the expected supply increase. When combined with rising EV demand, much of the additional supply may be consumed, potentially reducing inventory levels by year end.

“Then you probably incentivize some of the care-and-maintenance assets,” said Ortiz. “But then you look at 2026 and 2027, and there’s a very limited investment for greenfield assets.”

Long-term lithium price outlook

Benchmark has pegged the CAGR of the lithium market at 12 percent over the next 10 years, although this could be impeded due to the amount of project delays and shutterings. In the long term, the metals consultancy and pricing firm is also projecting a significant gap between projected demand and currently financed supply.

Webb explained that unfunded projects and future yet-to-be-identified greenfield developments together represent 1.3 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent that the market will need.

“For those projects to be incentivized, prices have to rise,” said Webb. “Our long-term incentive price for lithium is US$21,000 per metric ton. So prices will have to rise in the longer term for lithium.”