Chartists can improve their odds and increase the number of opportunities by trading short-term bullish setups within bigger uptrends. The first order of business is to identify the long-term trend using a trend-following indicator. Second, chartist can turn to more granular analysis to find short-term bullish setups. Today’s example will use the Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY).

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TrendInvestorPro monitors a carefully curated ETF ChartList to identify the leading uptrends and find bullish setups within these uptrends. We spotted several flag/pennant breakouts in tech-related ETFs in early June,  and Palladium crossed our radar with a trend-following signal in late June. This week we identified several more bullish continuation patterns. Click here to take a trial and get access to our research.

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Returning to SKYY….First, and foremost, the ETF is in a long-term uptrend. The chart below shows the 5-day SMA and 200-day SMA only (no price plot). A downtrend signaled when the 5-day plunged below the 200-day in late March and early April. This downtrend signal did not last long as the 5-day surged back above the 200-day SMA on May 13th. Whipsaws suck, but they are part of the trend-following process.

The indicator window shows a method to reduce whipsaws – and still ride the big trends. Percent above MA (5,200,1) shows the percentage difference between the 5 and 200 day SMAs. I added signal lines at +3% and -3%, which means the 5-day must be more than 3% above/below the 200-day for a signal. This simple filter greatly reduced whipsaws and still caught the big trends. The red dotted line shows the downtrend from January 2022 to May 2023, while the blue dotted line shows the uptrend from May 2023 to April 2025. This indicator is one of 11 in the TIP Indicator Edge Plugin.

With a long-term uptrend in place and the tech sector leading the market, we can look for bullish setups on the bar chart. The next chart shows SKYY with a breakout surge from early April to mid May and a pair of short-term bullish continuation patterns. First, a pennant formed into early June and SKYY broke out. Second, a small flag formed into late June and SKYY broke out this week.

These breakouts signal a continuation of the April-May surge and target a challenge to the prior highs. A close below the rising 200-day SMA would argue for the first re-evaluation. The charts at TrendInvestorPro extend two years to offer longer term perspectives for the bigger trends and granular analysis for the shorter term setups along the way. The idea is to trade in the direction of the bigger uptrend. Click here to learn more and gain immediate access.

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Take a tour of the FIVE latest updates and additions to our fan-favorite, professionally-curated Market Summary dashboard with Grayson!

In this video, Grayson walks viewers through the new charts and indexes that have been added to multiple panels on the page. These include mini-charts for the S&P sectors, a new index-only put/call ratio, intermarket analysis ratios to compare performance across asset classes, and a massive collection of key economic indexes that you can track like a pro. Plus, Grayson will show you how to install the accompanying Market Summary ChartPack – a pre-built collection of over 30 organized ChartLists designed to enhance your use of the Market Summary dashboard page.

This video originally premiered on June 26, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

Over a month ago, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) appeared on our StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) Top 10 list. SCTRs are an exclusive StockCharts tool that can help you quickly find stocks showing strong technical strength relative to other stocks in a similar category.

Now, the stock market is dynamic, and SMCI, like many stocks, went through a consolidation period with its price trading within a certain range. While SMCI was basically moving sideways, other stocks, such as Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR), Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD), and Roblox Corp. (RBLX), took their turn on the Top 10 SCTR list.

Spotting SMCI’s Potential Turnaround

After over a month of this sideways movement, SMCI is starting to show signs of a breakout. This can often be a sign of renewed strength for a stock to move higher, though there’s no guarantee.

A significant factor behind SMCI’s rise is the strength in AI-related tech stocks, which has given the broader market a big boost. The Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) hit record highs, and other major indexes such as the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) and S&P 500 ($SPX) are just a hair away from hitting their record highs. For as long as this positive trend remains in place, SMCI will likely ride higher with the market.

Let’s break down SMCI’s daily chart.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF SMCI STOCK. SMCI broke out of a trading range and has the potential to rise higher if momentum strengthens. Monitor momentum indicators such as the RSI and PPO.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

SMCI’s SCTR score was at 95.5 after Thursday’s close. The stock is trading comfortably above its 50-day simple moving average, its relative strength index (RSI) is approaching the 70 level, and the percentage price oscillator (PPO) is starting to show encouraging signs of positive momentum (see daily chart below).

Since SMCI has hit a high of $122.90, your initial thought might be that the stock has significant upside potential. It very well could. However, a key part of smart investing is understanding and managing risk. You know very well that any negative news headline is bound to send SMCI tumbling back to its lows; after all, it’s happened before.

Let’s say you spotted this breakout. The ideal approach is to wait for a pullback and a reversal back to the upside with strong follow-through before entering a long position. However, given the stock is moving relatively quickly, you let FOMO get to you and decided to enter a long SMCI position at around $48.

With the stock closing near its high for the day, there is the possibility of a higher move at the open, short of any negative news. But nothing is guaranteed, and you need downside protection for your position. Initially, your stop loss would be the top end of SMCI’s trading range. But what about your upside price targets?

For this, I turned to the weekly chart of SMCI and, using the annotation tool, added Fibonacci retracement levels from the March 2024 high to the November low.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF SMCI STOCK. Annotating Fibonacci retracement levels from the March 2024 high to the November 2024 low is one way to identify price targets.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Your first price target could be the 38.2% level, which falls just below $60. This aligns with the February high and was an area where the stock price stalled during August 2024 before it continued lower. If SMCI’s stock price hits that level, don’t be surprised if it wavers here. It could continue higher or fall lower depending on investor sentiment toward AI stocks.

Closing Position

Remember, protecting your capital is of utmost importance, regardless of whether the trade goes in your favor or not. Use stops with discipline, since stocks like SMCI can move both up and down quickly. Your objective should be to keep your losses small and let your profits run until the upside momentum dries up.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

MACD, ADX and S&P 500 action frame Joe Rabil’s latest show, where a drifting index push him toward single-stock breakouts. Joe spotlights the daily and weekly charts of American Express, Fortinet, Parker-Hannifin, Pentair, and ServiceNow as showing strong ADX/MACD characteristics. He outlines how the patterns showing on these charts can outshine the broad market until momentum confirms a larger move.

The video premiered on June 25, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its second consecutive 1% gain on Tuesday. That’s three solid 1% advances so far in June. And with a few trading days remaining in the month, the index has recorded only one 1% decline so far.

A lot can still happen before the month ends, but, as it stands, June is looking a lot like May, which also saw three 1% gains and one 1% loss. Taken together, these months resemble May and June of last year, although back then the S&P 500 advanced 52 consecutive sessions without a single 1% decline.

What this means for you: After the volatility of March and April—and the sharp rebound in mid-April—there has been a notable shift toward a more consistent uptrend. We talk about this frequently, and it bears repeating: the characteristics of a steady uptrend are unmistakable. It’s the foundation of our analysis that shapes our market outlook.

FIGURE 1. THE NUMBER OF 1% MOVES IN THE S&P 500 IN 2024 AND 2025. June is looking similar to May, which also saw three 1% gains and one 1% loss. It’s echoing the behavior we saw in May and June of 2024.

It all starts with daily price action. Low two-way volatility has set the tone in recent weeks. If this type of month-to-month tempo in daily moves continues, the uptrend can persist. The opposite, of course, is also true.

Zooming In On the Short-Term Moves

Looking at the S&P 500’s recent price action on the short-term chart, the index is now approximately +3% from its recent low last Friday. If this multi-day bounce were to stop now, it would be among the smallest over the last nine months. Indeed, most didn’t get much further before the next bout of profit taking, but this shows how the staircase-like advance could continue.

In other words, if this cadence persists, the S&P 500 could meander through its former highs, i.e., we may not see a resounding breakout. The more boring a move through 6,147, the better.

FIGURE 2. TWO-HOUR CHART OF THE S&P 500. The staircase-like advance in $SPX could continue, and the index could tiptoe through previous highs.

Also, notice how the recent drawdown only pulled the 14-period relative strength index (RSI) on this two-hour chart marginally below the 50 level, which shows that the momentum shift was limited last week. It’s a reminder of how weak the bounce attempt was in March, which set the stage for the second down leg of that move. If the reverse is now true, then another up leg could be afoot soon.

NVDA Stock: A Daily Perspective

NVDA made a new all-time high on Wednesday, the first since January 7. Its participation since the April 7 low has been a major and necessary piece to the SMH, XLK, NDX, and SPX’s rallies, and the global equity market’s overall comeback. 

We last cited the stock on May 27 and May 29 (before and right after it reported earnings), noting the bull flag pattern. The flag has held throughout, and NVDA is now close to achieving that price target. So, what’s next?

FIGURE 3: DAILY CHART OF NVDA’S STOCK PRICE. After the bull flag pattern, NVDA is close to achieving its price target.

NVDA vs. 200-Day Moving Average

NVDA’s comeback has pulled the stock back above its 200-day moving average. We’ve shown this before as the stock was coming back. The last few times NVDA reclaimed the long-term line after spending a long time below it, the stock advanced higher for years.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF NVDA WITH 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE. The last few times NVDA broke above its 200-day moving average after spending a long time below it, the stock advanced higher for years.

NVDA Stock: A Weekly Perspective

Even though NVDA made a marginal new high in early January, there was no follow-through. Thus, NVDA remains net flat since November 2024 and isn’t too far above its spike highs from last June either.

Altogether, the round trip can now be viewed as one big bullish pattern. We’ve seen similar formations play out three times since the October low. Once NVDA finally got through those volatile periods and broke out, those strong extensions that we all remember well ensued. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns, but patterns tend to repeat no matter the timeframe. So, we need to respect that the same kind of breakout could happen again with the stock is sitting at the same levels as it was eight months ago, but with strong market-wide demand at its back.

FIGURE 5. WEEKLY CHART OF NVDA. Could a breakout with strong market-wide demand occur?

NVDA – GoNoGo

NVDA’s weekly trend just flipped to positive on the GoNoGo chart, as well. As is clear, the last time this happened was in early 2023, the same time that the first bullish pattern on the preceding chart happened.

FIGURE 6. NVDA’S PRICE ACTION USING GONOGO CHART. The weekly trend just switched to positive. This happened in 2023, which is around the time the first bullish pattern occurred in the weekly chart in Figure 5.

NVDA Stock: A Monthly Perspective

Zooming way out, this also could be the fourth major breakout from a monthly perspective. The prior ones happened in 2015, 2020, and 2023.

FIGURE 7. MONTHLY CHART OF NVDA. There could be a fourth major breakout in NVDA’s stock price.

The Bottom Line

If you’re someone who likes to stay invested with an eye on the long-term, this is the kind of environment where patience pays off. The S&P 500 appears to be building strength, and NVDA is helping lead the charge.

Think trading against the trend is risky? You may want to reconsider. When a stock or ETF is trending lower, the smart money watches for signs of a reversal; those early signals can get you into a trend before everyone else and lead to favorable risk-to-reward ratios.

In this video, options strategist Tony Zhang breaks down how to spot high-probability counter-trend setups using technical signals and practical examples. You’ll learn how to identify early reversal signals, why counter-trend setups can be lower-risk than you’d think, and how to apply these strategies through examples and live reviews.

Whether you’re new to options trading or leveling up your game, this is your opportunity to explore a low-risk, high-performing strategy.

The video premiered on June 25, 2025.

The stock market has been on quite the rollercoaster of late, thanks to news headlines. But investors seem to have shrugged off the past weekend’s geopolitical tensions, at least for now. 

On Tuesday, we saw a surge of enthusiasm. Investors were diving back into stocks and selling off their oil and precious metals holdings. Last week, oil prices spiked amid Middle East tensions, but have now fallen to pre-conflict levels. After what felt like a few weeks of the market moving sideways, maybe the stock market got the catalyst it needed to push the major indexes out of their trading range. A ceasefire between Israel and Iran was enough to get things going.

Stocks Get a Boost

Tuesday’s positive tone helped move the stock market higher, with the S&P 500 ($SPX) closing up 1.1%, finally breaking above the top of its trading range. The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) followed suit, with both indexes within spitting distance of their all-time highs. The Nasdaq 100 ($NDX), which closed 1.53% higher, hit a new all-time high. And let’s not forget the Dow Industrials ($INDU), which is also making a strong attempt to push through key resistance levels, even though it’s a little bit further from its all-time high.

Given the Nasdaq 100’s strong performance on Tuesday, it’s worth taking a closer look at the daily chart of the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ).

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF QQQ. The ETF hit a new high on June 24 with a potential Golden Cross. If the relative strength index and percentage price oscillator confirm upside momentum, QQQ could rise higher.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Besides hitting a new high, note that the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossed above the 200-day SMA. This is referred to as a Golden Cross and can be an early sign of bullishness. While it’s not a guaranteed “green light” at such an early stage, it’s worth watching to see if the 50-day SMA continues to stay above the 200-day SMA.

The relative strength index (RSI) is getting closer to overbought territory. If it crosses above 70, it would be another sign of strong bullish momentum. Similarly, the percentage price oscillator (PPO) needs to move into positive territory, meaning the shorter moving average should cross above the longer one. They’re close, but remember these are lagging indicators, meaning they’ll confirm trends that are already underway. Thus, if the 50-day SMA remains above the 20-day SMA, RSI crosses above 70, and PPO confirms upside momentum, it would confirm further upside move in QQQ.

Another interesting point to note: The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) closed at 17.48, which suggests investors are relatively complacent. The VIX was relatively subdued during the Middle East conflict, hitting a high of around 22. With less fear, the charts of the major indexes look like they’re going to hit fresh highs. On Tuesday, Technology, Financials, and Communication Services were the top-performing sectors.

Tech Regains Lead

The Technology sector was powered by semiconductors, which have been driving the market lately. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has broken above the range it’s been trading within for the last couple of weeks and is now close to its 52-week high (see daily chart of SMH below).

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF SMH. Semiconductors have been driving the stock market lately and broke out above the range from the last couple of weeks.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Looking at individual stocks, NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) was the most actively traded S&P 500 stock. A handful of big names are hitting new all-time highs, too; this includes Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO), Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO), International Business Machines (IBM), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), and Netflix Inc. (NFLX), just to name a few. For the complete list, check out the “New Highs” panel in your StockCharts Dashboard; you’ll likely notice a significant percentage of tech stocks on the list.

The positive price action on Tuesday suggests investors are rotating into growth stocks, which signals further upside moves in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stocks. Here’s a more encouraging sign: even the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index ($SPXEW) is breaking out and moving towards its highs. This indicates that the market’s strength isn’t limited to a few big, heavily-weighted growth stocks; participation is much broader.

Travel Stocks Get a Lift

Beyond tech stocks, consumer discretionary stocks also traded higher. The top three performers in the Consumer Discretionary sector were Carnival Corp. (CCL), Norwegian Cruise Lines Holdings (NCLH), and Caesars Entertainment (CZR). The MarketCarpet for the Consumer Discretionary sector below shows travel stocks were strong performers on Tuesday.

FIGURE 3. MARKETCARPET FOR THE CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR. The table on the right shows CCL, NCLH, and CZR were the top performers.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

CCL’s stock price gapped up after the company reported strong earnings and guidance. An increase in cruise line bookings indicates consumer sentiment is strong. As a result, cruise lines and travel stocks traded higher. This goes against June’s Consumer Confidence report, which showed weakening confidence. It didn’t seem to impact the market, but it may come back to bite us depending on what news headlines we are likely to receive on Wednesday.

Closing Position

Tuesday’s price action suggests that equities are back on their bullish track after a period of consolidation. Will the upside move hold, or will a negative news headline bring the bears back into the market?

This is where your StockCharts tools come in handy! Keep a close eye on the performance of the major indexes and other helpful indicators such as the RSI and PPO. By using these tools, you can stay on top of the stock market and make investment decisions with greater confidence.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Join Dave as he shares how he uses the power of Fibonacci retracements to anticipate potential turning points. He takes viewers through the process of determining what price levels to use to set up a Fibonacci framework, and, from there, explains what Fibonacci retracements are telling him about the charts of NCLH, RTX, and the S&P 500

This video originally premiered on June 24, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

As the cycle of uncertainty continues to yield confusion than clarity, investors are again caught having to decide between taking an offensive and defensive posture in the market. The tough part in today’s market environment is how fast situations can shift. With headlines driving the action, sentiment can flip on a dime. So how do you position yourself when breaking news drives the market?

No one can predict how the stock market will play out in the coming months. But keeping an eye on the ratio of “offense” to “defense” stocks can offer some clues. This may not give you a decisive trade scenario, but it can provide a clearer context that can help you form a more bullish or bearish decisive bias.

For this article, let’s refer to the StockCharts Market Summary tool and zoom in on the Technology vs. Utilities ratio (XLK:XLU), which you can find in the Key Ratios – Offense vs Defense panel.

Why XLK:XLU Ratio Matters

This ratio compares the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) with the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU), both being sector proxies (see the one-year ratio chart below).

FIGURE 1. TECH VS UTILITIES RATIO: From a one-year perspective, utilities have outperformed tech.

The key question is whether capital will continue chasing innovation and growth or seek shelter in the relative stability of power grids and water systems. The answer, when it eventually comes, could signal the economy’s next move.

On the one-year chart, the XLK:XLU ratio shows an attempted recovery from a general decline. Note how the ratio percentage is negative. That’s because, over the past year, utilities have generally performed stronger than tech. But we’re seeing tech’s performance strengthening, and a sustained move toward (and eventually into) positive territory would suggest a stronger shift in bullish sentiment.

Notably, XLK and XLU are trading at their respective highs, with XLK already breaking above it. The question remains which sector may be topping or outpacing the other in a more sustained manner.

XLK Breaks Higher: A Bullish Signal?

Here’s a daily chart of XLK.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF XLK. A proxy for the tech sector, XLK has broken above resistance. The key question now is whether it can hold above this level and follow through, or if it’s topping out amid the current geopolitical uncertainties.

XLK’s surge from its April bottom, including the gap above $243, signals bullish momentum. It’s also trading above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) while its StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score has climbed above 76, signaling technical strength. Volume-wise, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows renewed strength in buying pressure, though CMF levels are down considerably since their highest levels in May.

XLU’s Rally: Strong, But Losing Steam

Compare XLK’s chart to XLU’s daily chart.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF XLU. The Utilities sector is challenging its highs, but is XLU losing steam, and will XLK eventually outpace it?

XLU is attempting to challenge its highs near the $82.50 range, though it hasn’t penetrated the top. Its SCTR score is also bullish at 77, though it’s not as convincing as that of XLK. XLU’s CMF reading also shows weakened buying pressure, as its levels are barely hovering above the zero line.

What These Charts Are Saying

Taken together, these charts aren’t about calling the next big trade. They’re about reading near-term sentiment and getting a feel for where investors think the economy is headed amid this tense geopolitical backdrop.

When both offense and defense are rising, it suggests uncertainty, with capital flowing in both directions. But when one sector pulls ahead, it may signal where institutional money is placing its bets. Whether you’re a short-term trader or long-term investor, tracking this ratio can help anchor your outlook, especially as global events continue to fuel market volatility.

Keep XLK and XLU on your ChartLists and continue to monitor this ratio, along with other comparative tools on the Market Summary page. Also, pay close attention to news developments.

At the Close

The XLK:XLU ratio might not give you the most comprehensive or surefire signal about investor sentiment, but it’s an important piece of the puzzle. It can help you see the bigger picture, which is a crucial step before placing any trades.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video, Mary Ellen opens with a look at the S&P 500, noting that the index remains above its 10-day average despite a brief pullback—a sign of healthy market breadth. She points to ongoing sector leadership in technology, while observing that energy and defense stocks are breaking higher and offering fresh opportunities. From there, Mary Ellen shares stocks that experienced strong earnings, talks AI-related stocks that are on the move higher, and looks at winners and losers following the passage of the Genius Act.

This video originally premiered on June 20, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.