In this exclusive StockCharts video, Joe shares how to use multi-timeframe analysis — Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts — to find the best stock market opportunities. See how Joe uses StockCharts tools to create confluence across timeframes and spot key levels. Joe then identifies strength in commodities, QQQ, and finishes up by reviewing symbol requests from viewers.

This video was originally published on March 26, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

The S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Russell 2000 fell 10.5%, 13.8%, and 19.5%, respectively, from their recent all-time highs down to their March lows. Each index paused long enough and deep enough for a correction, with the Russell 2000 nearly reaching cyclical bear market territory (-20%).

At this point, there’s key price resistance on the S&P 500. Moving through it doesn’t necessarily mean we’re “in the clear.” However, failure to move through and then rolling back over increases the odds of another test of recent low price support. Check out the range I’m watching on the S&P 500:

Key price resistance, in my view, is at 5782 on the S&P 500. That was the gap support from early November and also the price support from mid-January. Now we’re trying to break above that resistance, while at the same time trying to hang onto now-rising 20-day EMA support.

As for support, the April and August lows in 2024 intersect beautifully with the March 2025 low. That’s something to keep an eye on if we begin to head lower again. The price support on the S&P 500 is now just above 5500, so a close beneath that level would be damaging – at least in the very near-term. I say that, because any new closing low would be accompanied by a higher PPO, a positive divergence. Many times, a reversing candle and a positive divergence will mark a significant bottom. So there’ll be plenty to watch over the next few days to few weeks.

I also want to show you how the S&P 500 is performing on a short-term chart vs. the NASDAQ 100, which is the more aggressive index:

It’s just a little thing, but the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 had been trading mostly in unison over the past week or two, but with this morning’s weakness, note that the NASDAQ 100 has moved back down to Monday’s opening gap higher, while the S&P 500 still remains well above it. Here’s one reason for it:

Since the Fed announcement one week ago, discretionary stocks (XLY) had reversed its downtrend vs. staples stocks (XLP). But check out today’s action! Maybe this is just short-term and we’ll see a reversal later, but it’s hard to be overly encouraged when staples goes up 1.14%, while discretionary drops 0.64%.

It’s a warning sign.

I know there are TONS of mixed signals out there and everyone wants to know whether this recovery is the REAL DEAL or if it was only temporary before the next shoe drops. Well, if you’re interested, I’ll be hosting a FREE event on Saturday.

Correction or Bear Market?

That’s the topic of our Saturday event, which will begin promptly at 10am ET. I will be providing multiple angles/charts/strategies and what each of them are telling us. If you’d like to join me on Saturday and would like more information, REGISTER NOW.

Even if you have a prior commitment on Saturday, we plan to record the event and send out the recording to all who register. So act now to attend and/or receive your copy of the recording.

Happy trading!

Tom

The stronger-than-expected Services PMI reported on Monday injected optimism into the stock market. There was also some relief as news hit that the April 2 implementation of tariffs may be scaled back.

On Tuesday, however, the market hit the brakes and stalled the upside momentum. Consumer confidence fell by 7.2 points in March, a sign that U.S. consumers are worried about the economic outlook. This, along with uncertainty about tariffs and other policies, will likely remain the focus in investors’ minds.

The bigger focus should be on whether the recent upside move in the broader stock market indexes has legs. Let’s shift our attention to the charts of the broader markets.

The Technical Picture

In the daily chart of the S&P 500 below, the index crossed above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on Monday, a big hurdle for the index to overcome. Alas, the lack of follow-through on Tuesday could mean the 200-day may now act as a support level. The index could also bust through its January lows and start moving up toward its 50-day SMA.

FIGURE 1. S&P 500 INDEX BROKE ABOVE 200-DAY SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE. Will the index break above its January lows? That would be the next big hurdle.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Market breadth is showing signs of expanding, with the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index above 50, the NYSE Advance-Decline Line starting to trend higher, and the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day SMA shy of 50%.

The picture isn’t as positive for the Nasdaq Composite as it is for the S&P 500. The Nasdaq is approaching its 200-day SMA, and market breadth is showing signs of improvement, although slight (see chart below).

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE. The index is approaching its 200-day SMA while its breadth is showing slight signs of expanding.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Of the three broader indexes, the Dow is the one showing the most promising upside move (see chart below). Like its close cousins, it crossed above its 200-day SMA, but its market breadth has expanded more than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Its BPI is at 60 and the A-D Line is relatively high. The percentage of Dow stocks trading above their 200-day SMA is at 19%, but remember, the Dow has only 30 stocks in the index.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE. The 200-day SMA is now a support level. All three breadth indicators are showing signs of rising.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Small-cap stocks have lagged the larger indexes and, even though the S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) bounced off its March 13 low, there’s not enough follow-through to carry small caps higher. Replace the symbol in any of the above charts with $SML.

Bonds turned around on Tuesday in response to the weaker consumer confidence data. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield Index ($TNX) rose until the consumer confidence data was released, after which it slid lower. This was the move that should have raised eyebrows.

Bond Yields Also Teeter-Totter

Movements in Treasury yields are very telling about the state of the economy. To keep tabs on the movement in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, investors should monitor the Japanese yen. This may not be something you usually look at, but, given we’re in an environment where conditions change from one day to the next, it’s helpful to add a chart of the U.S. dollar relative to the yen in your ChartLists.

The daily chart of $USDJPY below has an overlay of the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA). The bottom panel monitors the performance of the 10-year yields.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF THE U.S. DOLLAR VS. JAPANESE YEN. The currency pair gives an idea of the overall health of the U.S. economy.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Generally, when U.S. Treasury yields fall, the U.S. dollar weakens relative to the yen. On Monday, the dollar rose relative to the yen when equities and Treasury yields rose, but fell on Tuesday, in conjunction with the fall in yields. You can see the close correlation between the two in the chart above.

On Monday, $USDJPY broke above the 21-day EMA. On Tuesday, the EMA acted as a support level. Can the dollar hold on to this support level and continue to strengthen relative to the yen? Yields generally rise when the economy is growing, so monitoring this chart regularly will give you a general idea of how the U.S. economy is performing.

Other Market Activity

Sector rotation was all over the place, moving back and forth from offensive to defensive. On Tuesday, Utilities, Health Care, and Real Estate were the worst-performing sectors. Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials were the best-performing sectors. However, the change was modest, so there’s not enough to confirm a move from offensive to defensive or vice versa.

Closing Bell

Overall, the market isn’t showing convincing directional movement. Tuesday’s market activity was a bit like watching paint dry—not too exciting relative to what we have seen in the last few weeks. The upside move we saw since Friday seems to have slowed. The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) eased and closed at around 17, so today’s lackluster price movement didn’t do anything to make investors fearful.

The most important data this week will probably be the February PCE, which is released on Friday. Let’s see if that stirs things up.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video, Dave breaks down the upside bounce in the Magnificent 7 stocks — AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, and more — highlighting key levels, 200-day moving averages, and top trading strategies using the StockCharts platform. Find out whether these leading growth stocks are set for a bullish reversal or more downside. Will the rally hold?

This video originally premiered on March 24, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

Markets surged out of the gate Monday morning, with all three major U.S. indexes notching early gains. But after a bruising two-week rout on Wall Street, the question facing investors is whether stocks can sustain the rebound.

If Monday’s bounce is driven more by short-term bargain hunting than long-term conviction, then certain scans, like StockCharts’ Strong Uptrends to New Highs can help cut through the noise — flagging the outliers breaking key levels and showing enough momentum to possibly hold the upward move.

How I Scanned the Market at the Open

First stop: A high-level sweep of the S&P 500 using MarketCarpets to catch the early movers. From there, I drilled down into the sectors to see where real strength, or weakness, was taking shape.

FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPETS S&P 500 AND SECTOR VIEW. The S&P 500 view gives you a sea of green, but zooming into sectors, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stands out above the rest.

Consumer Discretionary is outpacing all sectors, a signal worth noting. Instead of looking for leadership, I considered stocks hitting new highs, and then checking to see if any Discretionary names stand out from the pack.

So, next, I ran a Strong Uptrends To New Highs scan (you can find it in your scan library).

FIGURE 2, IMAGE OF THE SCAN AS IT APPEARS IN THE LIBRARY: This is one among numerous bullish scans you can run in StockCharts.

Only four stocks came up as a result. The most recognizable figure is Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI).

Darden Restaurants Stock: A Tasting Menu of Profits or Bloat

Even if you’re unfamiliar with the stock, you know Darden. Here’s a short list: Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Yard House, Ruth’s Chris Steak House, Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen, Chuy’s, Bahama Breeze, and a few more. Sound familiar?

DRI jumped after reporting strong fiscal Q3 results, with sales and EPS rising. The company also raised its full-year outlook and declared a $1.40 dividend; analysts also gave it an upgrade.

On the technical side of things, DRI also showed up on several other scan engines which appeared in the StockCharts Symbol Summary:

• Moved Above Upper Bollinger Band
• Moved Above Upper Price Channel
• P&F Double Top Breakout
• Moved Above Upper Keltner Channel
• New 52-week Highs
• P&F Spread Triple Top Breakout

Let’s take a look at DRI’s relative performance against its sector (XLY) and the S&P 500 using PerfCharts.

FIGURE 3. PERFCHARTS OF DRI, XLY, AND $SPX.  DRI’s outperformance is very recent, according to this chart.

This chart tells an interesting story. DRI has been the laggard for most of the last 12 months, though it began picking up steam as XLY began outpacing the S&P 500. As tariff fears brought XLY valuations down toward S&P levels, DRI maintained its valuations, and after a two-week dip, shot higher.

Let’s take a longer-term look using a weekly chart.

FIGURE 4. WEEKLY CHART OF DRI. The dotted line shows this week’s breakout to all-time highs.

So, what does this chart tell us relative to the PerfCharts above? First, while DRI has been underperforming XLY and the S&P over the last year (and longer than that if you extend the PerfCharts analysis period), the stock has been chugging along on a slow and steady, albeit volatile, uptrend, staying well above its 200-period simple moving average (SMA).

The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) line shows you that DRI has had periods fluctuating from technical strength to weakness. I consider the 70-line signal, more or less, to be the strength threshold, and right now, the stock is at 92, an extremely bullish level. The question now is whether it can maintain its trajectory and if so, might there be an entry point for those who are bullish on the stock?

For that, let’s shift over to a daily chart.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF DRI. Watch the momentum and volume.

DRI has been marching steadily upward since the middle of last summer, with its recent push to all-time highs fueled by strong fundamentals. However, in terms of momentum and volume, the Money Flow Index (MFI), which is a volume-driven RSI of sorts, has been declining during DRI’s rise, signaling the potential for a pullback.

Whether DRI can sustain its current momentum remains to be seen. In the meantime, the Ichimoku Cloud can help anticipate and gauge any potential pullback, with a broad support zone forming below. The first key level to watch is $192, while $180 marks a critical support line — a close below that could open the door to further downside.

At the Close

This scan-driven approach began with a broad market view and drilled down to individual stocks that made new highs while others merely rebounded. DRI emerged as a standout: a fundamentally strong name hitting new highs while much of the market remains in recovery mode. Whether it continues to climb or pulls back toward support, tools like the Ichimoku Cloud and volume-based indicators can help you manage the risk and prepare for entry.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Over the weekend it was announced that tariffs will be narrowing and possibly not as widespread as initially thought. Negotiations are continuing in the background and this seems to be allaying market participants’ fears. The market rallied strongly on the news.

Carl and Erin gave you their opinions of whether this rally has staying power. Carl began the program with a look at the current DP Signal Tables. Biases remain very negative but as we often say things get as bad as they’re going to get before they start turning it around.

After looking at the tables, Carl analyzed the market in general and then covered Gold, the Dollar, Yields, Bitcoin and more. Get a sense of market conditions with a review of this section.

The Magnificent Seven were next up on the agenda. Carl reviewed both the daily and weekly charts seeing many new rallies kicking in. Their improvements bode well for the market in general.

Erin took the reins and gave us a complete overview of sector rotation. She took a deep dive in the aggressive sectors with an under the hood view of Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Communication Services (XLC) and Technology (XLK).

Erin concluded the program by looking at viewer symbol requests that included SOFI, RIVN, F and SMCI.

01:18 DP Signal Tables

03:42 Market Overview

13:24 Magnificent Seven

22:05 Sector Rotation

28:31 Symbol Requests

Join us LIVE in the trading at Noon ET on Mondays by registering once here: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_D6iAp-C1S6SebVpQIYcC6g

We are running a two week FREE trial on any of our subscriptions! Just use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 at checkout! Here is a list of our subscriptions: https://www.decisionpoint.com/products.html

The DP Alert: Your First Stop to a Great Trade!

Before you trade any stock or ETF, you need to know the trend and condition of the market. The DP Alert gives you all you need to know with an executive summary of the market’s current trend and condition. It not only covers the market! We look at Bitcoin, Yields, Bonds, Gold, the Dollar, Gold Miners and Crude Oil! Only $50/month! Or, use our free trial to try it out for two weeks using coupon code: DPTRIAL2. Click HERE to subscribe NOW!

Learn more about DecisionPoint.com:

Watch the latest episode of the DecisionPointTrading Room on DP’s YouTube channel here!

Try us out for two weeks with a trial subscription!

Use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 Subscribe HERE!

Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

ITBM and ITVM

SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules

Energy Jumps to #2

A big move for the energy sector last week as XLE jumped to the #2 position in the ranking, coming from #6 the week before. This move came at the cost of the Consumer Staples sector which was pushed out of the top-5 and is now on #7.

Because of the jump of Energy, the Financials sector was pushed down to #3. Healthcare and Utilities remain in the top-5 but have switched positions.

The New Sector Lineup

1. (1) Communication Services – (XLC)
2. (6) Energy – (XLE)*
3. (2) Financials – (XLF)*
4. (5) Utilities – (XLU)*
5. (4) Healthcare – (XLV)*
6. (7) Industrials – (XLI)*
7. (3) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
8. (8) Real-Estate – (XLRE)
9. (9) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)
10. (10) Materials – (XLB)
11. (11) Technology – (XLK)

Weekly RRG: XLF and XLC remain strong

On the weekly Relative Rotation Graph, Communication Services and Financials remain strong inside the leading quadrant. From the big cluster of tails inside the improving quadrant, XLE has jumped to the front of the queue (almost) while XLU and XLV continue to pick up nicely.

The long tail on XLY at a negative RRG-Heading rapidly continues to push the sector to the lagging quadrant. The Negative RRG-Heading on XLK keeps the sector at the bottom of the list.

Daily RRG: Modest Pickup of Relative Momentum for XLK and XLY

On the daily RRG:

• XLE jumps to the highest RS-Ratio reading while maintaining the highest RS-Momentum.
• Utilities stall inside the lagging quadrant
• XLV rotates into weakening but remains at an elevated RS-Ratio reading
• XLF rotates back into the leading quadrant, signaling the start of a new leg in the already established relative uptrend.

Communication Services

XLC held above the rising support line and closed towards the high of the week, suggesting that a new higher low is now getting into place.

Relative Strength continues to be strong, and RS-Momentum bottoms against 100-level.

Energy

The Energy sector rapidly improved, jumping from position #6 to #2 in one week. On the price chart, XLE is breaking its falling resistance, which opens the way for a further rally to the horizontal barrier near 98.

The raw RS-line is close to leaving its two-year-old falling channel, which would signal a significant shift in sentiment and a turnaround into a relative uptrend.

Financials

XLF remains a strong sector in position #3, with relative strength continuing to rise.

Last week’s rally on the price chart brought the price back to the old rising support line, which is now expected to start acting as resistance. The former support from the low near 5o is also expected to start acting as resistance.

This means that the upside potential in terms of price seems limited for now, but RS is still going strong.

Utilities

Relative strength for Utilities continues to creep higher, enough to keep the sector inside the top 5.

Both price and RS remain within the boundaries of their trading ranges.

Healthcare

RS for the Healthcare sector stalled at the level of the previous low. The RS-Ratio and RS-Momentum combinations on the daily and weekly Relative Rotation Graphs remain strong enough to keep the sector in the top 5.

Portfolio Performance Update

In the portfolio, the position in Consumer Staples (XLP) was closed against the opening price of Monday morning (3/24). At the same time, a new position was opened in Energy (XLE) against the opening price.

The rally in Consumer Discretionary and Technology at the end of last week has put a small dent in the performance,e and RRGv1 is now 1.4% behind SPY since the start of the year.

#StayAlert, -Julius

If one word could characterize this week’s stock market price action, it would be “sideways.” At least it’s better than trending lower.

The stock market seemed comfortable with the Federal Reserve’s message on Wednesday, but lost that upside momentum and wasn’t able to follow through on the upside move until the last 30 minutes of Friday’s trading.

The Dow ($INDU), S&P 500 ($SPX), and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) managed to eke out gains, ending the week on a slightly optimistic note.

On the bright side, the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) pulled back from its March 10 level. Even quadruple witching Friday—when contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single-stock futures all expire—didn’t see volatility spike too high. That said, the VIX is still elevated, relatively speaking, so we’re not exactly in complacent territory.

Quarterly earnings reports from Nike, Inc. (NKE), FedEx Corp. (FDX), and Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) didn’t help. The most troubling of the three is FDX. FedEx’s performance indicates the overall health of the U.S. economy. Tariffs, declining consumer confidence, and uncertainty about economic growth could be headwinds, for FedEx and other companies.

The weekly chart of FDX below shows the stock is trading below its 150-week exponential moving average (EMA) with its 40-week EMA trending lower. FDX has been underperforming the Industrials Select Sector SPDR (XLI) since early September 2024.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF FEDEX STOCK. FDX is trading below its 150-week EMA and underperforming the Industrial sector. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Be sure to save this chart to your ChartLists. It acts like a monitor to check the U.S. economy’s pulse.

Precious Metals Shine

But it’s not all negative. Gold and silver prices have trended higher with gold hitting an all-time high this week. The daily six-month chart of gold futures ($GOLD) below shows that gold prices are trading above $3,000 per ounce.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. Gold prices have rallied most of the year and could keep rising if investors invest in safe-haven assets such as gold. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

In addition to trading above its 50- and 200-day SMAs, gold is outperforming the S&P 500. A rise in gold prices indicates risk-off sentiment, and, if investors continue to sell off stocks, gold prices could rise further. This is another valuable chart to monitor when uncertainty reigns.

Next week is heavy on macro data, so this back-and-forth movement could continue. Fasten your seatbelts.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

• S&P 500 up 0.51% on the week, at 5667.56, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.2% on the week at 41,985.35; Nasdaq Composite up 0.17% on the week at 17,784.05.
• $VIX down 11.39% on the week, closing at 19.28.
• Best performing sector for the week: Energy
• Worst performing sector for the week: Utilities
• Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Elbit Systems, Ltd. (ESLT); XPeng, Inc. (XPEV); Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Applovin Corp. (APP); Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB)

On the Radar Next Week

• March S&P Global PMI
• February PCE
• Q4 GDP Growth Rate (final)
• Fed speeches from Bostic, Barr, Kugler, and others

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Seeing that the earnings slate is light, this week we focus on certain stocks to watch during uncertain times.

If you are jittery and risk-averse, we have two safer (boring) stocks, plus one tech stock that has shown great relative strength compared to its peers. Let’s do a deep dive into all three.

American International Group (AIG)

Insurance stocks have done quite well in the current volatile environment. As inflation fears mount, it’s ironic that an inflationary sector is a good one to buy in the current cycle.

We can go with a basket of insurance stocks by adding the iShares U.S. Insurance ETF (IAK), which is up 7.3% YTD, but, for this article, let’s focus on one of its leaders, AIG.

Fundamentally, results have been solid and bolstered by a strong buyback program. AIG pays a dividend of 1.9%. Analysts, according to Bloomberg data, have the equivalent of 12 buys, 8 holds, and 0 sells with an average price target at current levels of $85.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF AIG. The stock is one of strongest within its sector and is likely to be more stable.

Technically, let’s keep it simple. Looking at multiple time frames, we are seeing breakouts. There are great risk/reward set-ups based on these patterns. It’s one of the strongest within the sector and looks attractive above $80. 

Shares won’t run up like a tech stock, but, in tougher and unpredictable times, look for more stable and slow growth with solid returns; thus, one of the best within the insurance sector.

John Deere (DE)

Another stock with great relative strength within the Industrial sector is DE. It’s up 11.3% year-to-date and outperforming both the Industrials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) (up 0.2% year-to-date) and the S&P 500 (-4%).

Fundamentally, John Deere’s guidance was not solid. Tariff concerns were mentioned, but — and this is a BIG BUT — CEO John May noted in the call that “75% of all products that we sell in the U.S. are assembled here in the U.S.” This fits well with the narrative coming out of Washington.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF DE. After breaking out of a two-year base, it looks like a great setup.

Technically, we see another great set-up. Shares experienced a major break-out of a two-year base on a weekly timeframe. The daily chart, while a tad more choppy, looks solid as well. The risk/reward set-up is also favorable to the bulls.

Again, kinda boring, but pullbacks have been bought. An upside target of $540 over the next year is very plausible given the base it broke out of on the weekly. Use a near-term stop on a pullback just under the $440 level, depending on your risk tolerance.

Broadcom (AVGO)

Broadcom (AVGO) is anything but boring. It’s the third biggest weight in the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH), fourth in the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) and eighth in S&P 500. It’s one of the biggest stocks in a sector that has been struggling. And yet, when you look at it technically, it’s a top name with great relative strength.

Fundamentally, AVGO had a great quarterly result. AI chip revenue was up 220% y-o-y to $12.2 billion. The $69 billion acquisition of VMWare (end of 2023) is starting to pay dividends, as it helped expand its software business now that it has a full year under its belt. Like most semiconductor stocks, it hasn’t recovered since the DeepSeek news.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF BROADCOM STOCK. AVGO has retraced to its 200-day simple moving average and looks like a good risk/reward setup.

Yet technically, shares have retraced back to the rising 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and held. That level also coincides with the gap from which it broke above. Thus, the former major resistance area now becomes support. This gives investors a good risk/reward set-up, using the recent lows just below $177 as a near-term stop.

We can also see a bullish crossover in the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), which signaled a buy signal last week. Between solid support holding, good technical relative strength, and a MACD buy signal, shares could run back to $215. That target would reach its declining 50-day moving average. If we see momentum come back into the sector, this should lead the rally.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

We wrote about the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) poll results a few weeks ago. Since then the bearish activity on the chart has broken a record for the poll. Since the poll’s inception in 1987 we have never seen four weeks in a row of bearish readings above 55%. We are now at bearish extremes for this indicator.

Remember that sentiment, which this poll measures, is contrarian. This means that when market participants are extraordinarily bearish it is a bullish indication. The opposite also applies, extraordinarily bullish readings are bearish for the market.

Clearly you can see that even after and during the bear market in 2022 we never saw a cluster of readings this high. This has put the bull/bear ratio at a very low reading. This has typically resulted in an upside reversal.

One thing we would say is that sometimes poll takers are RIGHT! So while we do see extremely bearish readings, we wouldn’t bet the house that this isn’t a bear market. At DecisionPoint.com we have been monitoring our indicators and participation and we are considering that we are in the throws of a bear market rally and that it isn’t likely to stick around. However, charts like this do have us wondering if the correction is all we’ll get.

Conclusion: Sentiment is extremely bearish on AII and typically this will lead to a sustained rally. However, we have to understand that sometimes the respondents are correct and we’ll see more downside after all.

The DP Alert: Your First Stop to a Great Trade!

Before you trade any stock or ETF, you need to know the trend and condition of the market. The DP Alert gives you all you need to know with an executive summary of the market’s current trend and condition. It not only covers the market! We look at Bitcoin, Yields, Bonds, Gold, the Dollar, Gold Miners and Crude Oil! Only $50/month! Or, use our free trial to try it out for two weeks using coupon code: DPTRIAL2. Click HERE to subscribe NOW!

Learn more about DecisionPoint.com:

Watch the latest episode of the DecisionPointTrading Room on DP’s YouTube channel here!

Try us out for two weeks with a trial subscription!

Use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 Subscribe HERE!

Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

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Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

ITBM and ITVM

SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules