In this video, Dave breaks down the upside bounce in the Magnificent 7 stocks — AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, and more — highlighting key levels, 200-day moving averages, and top trading strategies using the StockCharts platform. Find out whether these leading growth stocks are set for a bullish reversal or more downside. Will the rally hold?
This video originally premiered on March 24, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!
Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.
Markets surged out of the gate Monday morning, with all three major U.S. indexes notching early gains. But after a bruising two-week rout on Wall Street, the question facing investors is whether stocks can sustain the rebound.
If Monday’s bounce is driven more by short-term bargain hunting than long-term conviction, then certain scans, like StockCharts’ Strong Uptrends to New Highs can help cut through the noise — flagging the outliers breaking key levels and showing enough momentum to possibly hold the upward move.
First stop: A high-level sweep of the S&P 500 using MarketCarpets to catch the early movers. From there, I drilled down into the sectors to see where real strength, or weakness, was taking shape.
FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPETS S&P 500 AND SECTOR VIEW. The S&P 500 view gives you a sea of green, but zooming into sectors, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stands out above the rest.
Consumer Discretionary is outpacing all sectors, a signal worth noting. Instead of looking for leadership, I considered stocks hitting new highs, and then checking to see if any Discretionary names stand out from the pack.
So, next, I ran a Strong Uptrends To New Highs scan (you can find it in your scan library).
FIGURE 2, IMAGE OF THE SCAN AS IT APPEARS IN THE LIBRARY: This is one among numerous bullish scans you can run in StockCharts.
Only four stocks came up as a result. The most recognizable figure is Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI).
Even if you’re unfamiliar with the stock, you know Darden. Here’s a short list: Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Yard House, Ruth’s Chris Steak House, Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen, Chuy’s, Bahama Breeze, and a few more. Sound familiar?
DRI jumped after reporting strong fiscal Q3 results, with sales and EPS rising. The company also raised its full-year outlook and declared a $1.40 dividend; analysts also gave it an upgrade.
On the technical side of things, DRI also showed up on several other scan engines which appeared in the StockCharts Symbol Summary:
Let’s take a look at DRI’s relative performance against its sector (XLY) and the S&P 500 using PerfCharts.
FIGURE 3. PERFCHARTS OF DRI, XLY, AND $SPX. DRI’s outperformance is very recent, according to this chart.
This chart tells an interesting story. DRI has been the laggard for most of the last 12 months, though it began picking up steam as XLY began outpacing the S&P 500. As tariff fears brought XLY valuations down toward S&P levels, DRI maintained its valuations, and after a two-week dip, shot higher.
Let’s take a longer-term look using a weekly chart.
FIGURE 4. WEEKLY CHART OF DRI. The dotted line shows this week’s breakout to all-time highs.
So, what does this chart tell us relative to the PerfCharts above? First, while DRI has been underperforming XLY and the S&P over the last year (and longer than that if you extend the PerfCharts analysis period), the stock has been chugging along on a slow and steady, albeit volatile, uptrend, staying well above its 200-period simple moving average (SMA).
The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) line shows you that DRI has had periods fluctuating from technical strength to weakness. I consider the 70-line signal, more or less, to be the strength threshold, and right now, the stock is at 92, an extremely bullish level. The question now is whether it can maintain its trajectory and if so, might there be an entry point for those who are bullish on the stock?
For that, let’s shift over to a daily chart.
FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF DRI. Watch the momentum and volume.
DRI has been marching steadily upward since the middle of last summer, with its recent push to all-time highs fueled by strong fundamentals. However, in terms of momentum and volume, the Money Flow Index (MFI), which is a volume-driven RSI of sorts, has been declining during DRI’s rise, signaling the potential for a pullback.
Whether DRI can sustain its current momentum remains to be seen. In the meantime, the Ichimoku Cloud can help anticipate and gauge any potential pullback, with a broad support zone forming below. The first key level to watch is $192, while $180 marks a critical support line — a close below that could open the door to further downside.
This scan-driven approach began with a broad market view and drilled down to individual stocks that made new highs while others merely rebounded. DRI emerged as a standout: a fundamentally strong name hitting new highs while much of the market remains in recovery mode. Whether it continues to climb or pulls back toward support, tools like the Ichimoku Cloud and volume-based indicators can help you manage the risk and prepare for entry.
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.
Over the weekend it was announced that tariffs will be narrowing and possibly not as widespread as initially thought. Negotiations are continuing in the background and this seems to be allaying market participants’ fears. The market rallied strongly on the news.
Carl and Erin gave you their opinions of whether this rally has staying power. Carl began the program with a look at the current DP Signal Tables. Biases remain very negative but as we often say things get as bad as they’re going to get before they start turning it around.
After looking at the tables, Carl analyzed the market in general and then covered Gold, the Dollar, Yields, Bitcoin and more. Get a sense of market conditions with a review of this section.
The Magnificent Seven were next up on the agenda. Carl reviewed both the daily and weekly charts seeing many new rallies kicking in. Their improvements bode well for the market in general.
Erin took the reins and gave us a complete overview of sector rotation. She took a deep dive in the aggressive sectors with an under the hood view of Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Communication Services (XLC) and Technology (XLK).
Erin concluded the program by looking at viewer symbol requests that included SOFI, RIVN, F and SMCI.
01:18 DP Signal Tables
03:42 Market Overview
13:24 Magnificent Seven
22:05 Sector Rotation
28:31 Symbol Requests
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Before you trade any stock or ETF, you need to know the trend and condition of the market. The DP Alert gives you all you need to know with an executive summary of the market’s current trend and condition. It not only covers the market! We look at Bitcoin, Yields, Bonds, Gold, the Dollar, Gold Miners and Crude Oil! Only $50/month! Or, use our free trial to try it out for two weeks using coupon code: DPTRIAL2. Click HERE to subscribe NOW!
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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin
(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.
Helpful DecisionPoint Links:
Trend Models
Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)
On Balance Volume
Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)
ITBM and ITVM
SCTR Ranking
Bear Market Rules
A big move for the energy sector last week as XLE jumped to the #2 position in the ranking, coming from #6 the week before. This move came at the cost of the Consumer Staples sector which was pushed out of the top-5 and is now on #7.
Because of the jump of Energy, the Financials sector was pushed down to #3. Healthcare and Utilities remain in the top-5 but have switched positions.
On the weekly Relative Rotation Graph, Communication Services and Financials remain strong inside the leading quadrant. From the big cluster of tails inside the improving quadrant, XLE has jumped to the front of the queue (almost) while XLU and XLV continue to pick up nicely.
The long tail on XLY at a negative RRG-Heading rapidly continues to push the sector to the lagging quadrant. The Negative RRG-Heading on XLK keeps the sector at the bottom of the list.
On the daily RRG:
XLC held above the rising support line and closed towards the high of the week, suggesting that a new higher low is now getting into place.
Relative Strength continues to be strong, and RS-Momentum bottoms against 100-level.
The Energy sector rapidly improved, jumping from position #6 to #2 in one week. On the price chart, XLE is breaking its falling resistance, which opens the way for a further rally to the horizontal barrier near 98.
The raw RS-line is close to leaving its two-year-old falling channel, which would signal a significant shift in sentiment and a turnaround into a relative uptrend.
XLF remains a strong sector in position #3, with relative strength continuing to rise.
Last week’s rally on the price chart brought the price back to the old rising support line, which is now expected to start acting as resistance. The former support from the low near 5o is also expected to start acting as resistance.
This means that the upside potential in terms of price seems limited for now, but RS is still going strong.
Relative strength for Utilities continues to creep higher, enough to keep the sector inside the top 5.
Both price and RS remain within the boundaries of their trading ranges.
RS for the Healthcare sector stalled at the level of the previous low. The RS-Ratio and RS-Momentum combinations on the daily and weekly Relative Rotation Graphs remain strong enough to keep the sector in the top 5.
In the portfolio, the position in Consumer Staples (XLP) was closed against the opening price of Monday morning (3/24). At the same time, a new position was opened in Energy (XLE) against the opening price.
The rally in Consumer Discretionary and Technology at the end of last week has put a small dent in the performance,e and RRGv1 is now 1.4% behind SPY since the start of the year.
#StayAlert, -Julius
If one word could characterize this week’s stock market price action, it would be “sideways.” At least it’s better than trending lower.
The stock market seemed comfortable with the Federal Reserve’s message on Wednesday, but lost that upside momentum and wasn’t able to follow through on the upside move until the last 30 minutes of Friday’s trading.
The Dow ($INDU), S&P 500 ($SPX), and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) managed to eke out gains, ending the week on a slightly optimistic note.
On the bright side, the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) pulled back from its March 10 level. Even quadruple witching Friday—when contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single-stock futures all expire—didn’t see volatility spike too high. That said, the VIX is still elevated, relatively speaking, so we’re not exactly in complacent territory.
Quarterly earnings reports from Nike, Inc. (NKE), FedEx Corp. (FDX), and Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) didn’t help. The most troubling of the three is FDX. FedEx’s performance indicates the overall health of the U.S. economy. Tariffs, declining consumer confidence, and uncertainty about economic growth could be headwinds, for FedEx and other companies.
The weekly chart of FDX below shows the stock is trading below its 150-week exponential moving average (EMA) with its 40-week EMA trending lower. FDX has been underperforming the Industrials Select Sector SPDR (XLI) since early September 2024.
FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF FEDEX STOCK. FDX is trading below its 150-week EMA and underperforming the Industrial sector. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
Be sure to save this chart to your ChartLists. It acts like a monitor to check the U.S. economy’s pulse.
But it’s not all negative. Gold and silver prices have trended higher with gold hitting an all-time high this week. The daily six-month chart of gold futures ($GOLD) below shows that gold prices are trading above $3,000 per ounce.
FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. Gold prices have rallied most of the year and could keep rising if investors invest in safe-haven assets such as gold. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
In addition to trading above its 50- and 200-day SMAs, gold is outperforming the S&P 500. A rise in gold prices indicates risk-off sentiment, and, if investors continue to sell off stocks, gold prices could rise further. This is another valuable chart to monitor when uncertainty reigns.
Next week is heavy on macro data, so this back-and-forth movement could continue. Fasten your seatbelts.
On the Radar Next Week
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.
Seeing that the earnings slate is light, this week we focus on certain stocks to watch during uncertain times.
If you are jittery and risk-averse, we have two safer (boring) stocks, plus one tech stock that has shown great relative strength compared to its peers. Let’s do a deep dive into all three.
Insurance stocks have done quite well in the current volatile environment. As inflation fears mount, it’s ironic that an inflationary sector is a good one to buy in the current cycle.
We can go with a basket of insurance stocks by adding the iShares U.S. Insurance ETF (IAK), which is up 7.3% YTD, but, for this article, let’s focus on one of its leaders, AIG.
Fundamentally, results have been solid and bolstered by a strong buyback program. AIG pays a dividend of 1.9%. Analysts, according to Bloomberg data, have the equivalent of 12 buys, 8 holds, and 0 sells with an average price target at current levels of $85.
FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF AIG. The stock is one of strongest within its sector and is likely to be more stable.
Technically, let’s keep it simple. Looking at multiple time frames, we are seeing breakouts. There are great risk/reward set-ups based on these patterns. It’s one of the strongest within the sector and looks attractive above $80.
Shares won’t run up like a tech stock, but, in tougher and unpredictable times, look for more stable and slow growth with solid returns; thus, one of the best within the insurance sector.
Another stock with great relative strength within the Industrial sector is DE. It’s up 11.3% year-to-date and outperforming both the Industrials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) (up 0.2% year-to-date) and the S&P 500 (-4%).
Fundamentally, John Deere’s guidance was not solid. Tariff concerns were mentioned, but — and this is a BIG BUT — CEO John May noted in the call that “75% of all products that we sell in the U.S. are assembled here in the U.S.” This fits well with the narrative coming out of Washington.
FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF DE. After breaking out of a two-year base, it looks like a great setup.
Technically, we see another great set-up. Shares experienced a major break-out of a two-year base on a weekly timeframe. The daily chart, while a tad more choppy, looks solid as well. The risk/reward set-up is also favorable to the bulls.
Again, kinda boring, but pullbacks have been bought. An upside target of $540 over the next year is very plausible given the base it broke out of on the weekly. Use a near-term stop on a pullback just under the $440 level, depending on your risk tolerance.
Broadcom (AVGO) is anything but boring. It’s the third biggest weight in the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH), fourth in the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) and eighth in S&P 500. It’s one of the biggest stocks in a sector that has been struggling. And yet, when you look at it technically, it’s a top name with great relative strength.
Fundamentally, AVGO had a great quarterly result. AI chip revenue was up 220% y-o-y to $12.2 billion. The $69 billion acquisition of VMWare (end of 2023) is starting to pay dividends, as it helped expand its software business now that it has a full year under its belt. Like most semiconductor stocks, it hasn’t recovered since the DeepSeek news.
FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF BROADCOM STOCK. AVGO has retraced to its 200-day simple moving average and looks like a good risk/reward setup.
Yet technically, shares have retraced back to the rising 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and held. That level also coincides with the gap from which it broke above. Thus, the former major resistance area now becomes support. This gives investors a good risk/reward set-up, using the recent lows just below $177 as a near-term stop.
We can also see a bullish crossover in the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), which signaled a buy signal last week. Between solid support holding, good technical relative strength, and a MACD buy signal, shares could run back to $215. That target would reach its declining 50-day moving average. If we see momentum come back into the sector, this should lead the rally.
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.
We wrote about the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) poll results a few weeks ago. Since then the bearish activity on the chart has broken a record for the poll. Since the poll’s inception in 1987 we have never seen four weeks in a row of bearish readings above 55%. We are now at bearish extremes for this indicator.
Remember that sentiment, which this poll measures, is contrarian. This means that when market participants are extraordinarily bearish it is a bullish indication. The opposite also applies, extraordinarily bullish readings are bearish for the market.
Clearly you can see that even after and during the bear market in 2022 we never saw a cluster of readings this high. This has put the bull/bear ratio at a very low reading. This has typically resulted in an upside reversal.
One thing we would say is that sometimes poll takers are RIGHT! So while we do see extremely bearish readings, we wouldn’t bet the house that this isn’t a bear market. At DecisionPoint.com we have been monitoring our indicators and participation and we are considering that we are in the throws of a bear market rally and that it isn’t likely to stick around. However, charts like this do have us wondering if the correction is all we’ll get.
Conclusion: Sentiment is extremely bearish on AII and typically this will lead to a sustained rally. However, we have to understand that sometimes the respondents are correct and we’ll see more downside after all.
Before you trade any stock or ETF, you need to know the trend and condition of the market. The DP Alert gives you all you need to know with an executive summary of the market’s current trend and condition. It not only covers the market! We look at Bitcoin, Yields, Bonds, Gold, the Dollar, Gold Miners and Crude Oil! Only $50/month! Or, use our free trial to try it out for two weeks using coupon code: DPTRIAL2. Click HERE to subscribe NOW!
Learn more about DecisionPoint.com:
Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin
(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.
Helpful DecisionPoint Links:
Trend Models
Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)
On Balance Volume
Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)
ITBM and ITVM
SCTR Ranking
Bear Market Rules
The Zweig Breadth Thrust is best known for its bullish reversal signals, which capture a material increase in upside participation. There is, however, more to the indicator because traders can also use the “setup” period to identify oversold conditions. This report will explain the original Zweig Breadth Thrust and show how these signals work.
Note that our breadth models turned bearish in mid March and the major index ETFs triggered long-term downtrend signals. I am now watching for something that would prove this stance otherwise, such as a Zweig Breadth Thrust. A set up is in the making using S&P 500 data, but this has yet to translate into a signal. We will follow this setup closely in the coming days. Click here for a trial and full access to our reports and videos.
A Sharp Increase in Advancing Stocks
The Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicator uses NYSE advance-decline data to identify major shifts in the percentage of advancing stocks (breadth). The first step is to calculate the percentage of advancing stocks (advances divided by advances plus declines). Second, apply a 10-day EMA. Thus, the indicator is the 10-day EMA of Advances/(Advances + Declines). This formula comes from Greg Morris’ book, the Encyclopedia of Breadth Indicators.
A value of .40 means the 10-day EMA is just 40%, which shows an extremely low percentage of advancing stocks. A value of .615 means the 10-day EMA is 61.5%, which shows an exceptionally large percentage of advancing stocks. For reference, the chart below shows NYSE Advances and Declines in the middle window and the ZBT indicator in the lower window.
From Setup to Signal
The Zweig Breadth Thrust triggers when the indicator moves from an extremely low level to an exceptionally high level in a short period. Such moves show a major turnaround in participation (advancing stocks). A setup occurs when the indicator dips below .40 (40%), and the Zweig Breadth Thrust signals when the indicator surges above .615 (61.5%) within 10 days.
The chart above shows the ZBT indicator (!BINYBT) in the top window, the digital signal in the middle window (!BINYBTD) and the NY Composite in the lower window. The blue shadings show the indicator surging from below .40 to above .615 within a 10 day window (April and November 2023). The pink shadings show two signals that missed the 10 day cutoff.
This indicator can also identify short-term oversold conditions with a move below .40 (40%). The gray vertical lines show four instances when this indicator became oversold (March, August, September and October 2023, April and December 2024). Short-term oversold conditions reflect an extreme pullback that can lead to a bounce.
Solid Rationale, but Something Missing
There is a solid rationale behind the Zweig Breadth Thrust, but something is missing. Those “somethings” are Nasdaq stocks. I suspect Zweig used NYSE breadth because he developed it when the big board (NYSE) dominated trading (80s). The Nasdaq is now a major exchange so a modern breadth indicator should include Nasdaq stocks. I would suggest using S&P 500 or S&P 1500 stocks. Nasdaq stocks account for around 30% of the S&P 500, which is the most important benchmark and where institutions are active. Nasdaq stocks account for around 33% of the S&P 1500, a broad index that covers large-caps, mid-caps and small-caps.
The NYSE ZBT Indicator did not move below .40 in mid March, but versions using the S&P 1500 and S&P 1500 did on March 13th. This means two things. First, the S&P 500 and S&P 1500 became oversold and ripe for a bounce. Second, a possible Zweig Breadth Thrust is setting up with March 27th as the cut off date.
The full version of this report is reversed for subscribers. We show how to set up the ZBT indicator using S&P 500 and S&P 1500 breadth, review past signals and analyze the current situation. This report includes custom SharpCharts with links and a video for deeper understanding. Click here to subscribe and gain immediate access.
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After reaching an all-time around $540 in mid-February, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) dropped almost 14% to make a new swing low around $467. With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq bouncing nicely this week, investors are struggling to differentiate between a bearish dead-cat bounce and a bullish full recovery.
There was no question that valuations had become incredibly rich going into the end of 2024, so some sort of corrective move was widely anticipated in Q1 2025. But was the February to March drawdown enough to appease the valuation trolls and empower investors to buy weakness to drive prices to further all-time highs?
Today, we’ll lay out four potential outcomes for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ). As I share each of these four future paths, I’ll describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and I’ll also share my estimated probability for each scenario. The goal of this example of “probabilistic analysis” is to expand our thinking of what’s possible, to break down our preconceived market biases, and to open our minds to alternative points of view.
Before we do so, I’d love to revisit the last time we conducted this exercise on the Nasdaq 100 back in December 2024.
Going into early January it appeared that Scenario 4, the Super Bearish scenario, was matching very closely with market action. But a very choppy month of January kept prices fairly stable, and by the end of January the Nasdaq 100 was very close to the end of our Scenario 3.
Back to the current market environment, we’re thinking a Very Bullish Scenario would mean the QQQ continues the current uptrend which eventually becomes a full recovery to retest the February 2025 high. On the other hand, if this week is really more of a dead cat bounce, then the Super Bearish Scenario could take us all the way down to retest the August 2024 lows.
And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:
Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, involving the QQQ continuing this week’s rally to retest the recent all-time high.
I’ve heard plenty of calls that last week’s low was actually “the” low and the bottom is now in. But for the Nasdaq 100 to get all the way back up to $540 then we would need to see a dramatic recovery in the Mag 7 names. Without a rally from the mega cap growth trade, I don’t think it’s even possible for this sort of bull phase to play out. Given the continued weakness in charts like META, I’d say this is a low probability.
Dave’s Vote: 5%
What if we do see a recovery in most sectors and themes outside the Mag 7 stocks? Scenario 2 would mean the QQQ can only get up to around $200, because without the biggest growth names participating the uptrend has limited momentum. Breadth conditions would definitely improve in this scenario, as stocks thrive on a decent Q1 earnings season.
Dave’s vote: 20%
The two bearish scenarios would mean that the recent upswing starts to turn lower as renewed fears of inflation, geopolitical risk, and a weak earnings season all weigh on risk assets. A mildly bearish scenario means perhaps that we see some signs of optimism as investors begin to feel more familiar with the flurry of policy decisions from Washington. And even though we haven’t gained much ground by the end of April, it definitely feels as if the bear phase is limited.
Dave’s vote: 30%
What if the flurry of policy decisions we’ve seen is just an appetizer, and the main course arrives in April? Given the global instability and economic concerns, it’s not hard to envision a scenario where the February to March drop was the first in a multi-wave decline that takes the QQQ back down to the August 2024 lows. This scenario seems like the most likely outcome based on the breadth and momentum deteriorations we’ve been tracking for months on our daily market recap show.
Dave’s vote: 45%
What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios? Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!
RR#6,
Dave
PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!
David Keller, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
StockCharts.com
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.
The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
You already know about diversification. You’ve set your investment goals, picked a benchmark, and decided on the weighting of your allocations. Now, it’s come down to selecting the assets—stocks or ETFs—to build your portfolio.
As a long-term investor with moderate risk tolerance, how might you build a portfolio to withstand market drawdowns and weather the business cycle?
There are many ways to do this. Here are a few ideas to consider.
FIGURE 1. RRG CHARTS OF S&P SECTOR ETFS RELATIVE TO THE S&P 500. This image shows you the one-year progression of each sector, indicating the stage of leadership they might be headed.
If you’re looking to diversify by sector, it helps to know where each one has been, performance-wise, and toward what state of leadership they might be entering. Which stocks are Improving, Leading, Weakening, and Lagging?
This is where RRG Charts (specifically RRG S&P 500 Sector ETFs) come in handy. By giving you a dynamic view of sector movement over time, RRGs can help you time your entries to match your strategy—whether you want to buy strength or take a more contrarian approach and buy weakness.
You might also want to view sectors in terms of relative performance. PerfCharts are a useful way to see how each sector is performing against other sectors.
FIGURE 2. PERFCHARTS OF 11 S&P SECTORS. Sectors are sorted from outperforming (left) to underperforming (right).
PerfCharts show that over the past year, Utilities, Financials, and Communications Services have led the market, while Materials, Technology, and Health Care have lagged. If you were looking to shift your portfolio toward greater sector diversification, this chart would prompt a few questions:
Combining RRG and PerfCharts can provide plenty of context for evaluating whether to enter, exit, or rebalance your positions.
One question that’ll likely be on your mind is whether you should invest in individual stocks within a given sector or in a sector index ETF.
If you click the sector names in the Sector Summary tool, you can zoom in on the industries. Select the industry and you’ll get a list of all the stocks within that industry. The charts above tell you how the sectors are performing relative to one another.
If you decide to buy stocks for your sector allocation instead of sector ETFs, then you might want to know how a given stock is performing relative to its a) sector, b) industry, and c) a broader market benchmark like the S&P 500.
Here’s an example. Suppose you decide you want to invest in a stock in the Consumer Staples sector. You decide on Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) which has a high StockChartsTechnicalRank (SCTR) score. Take a look at this daily chart.
FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF SFM. You want to see how SFM is performing against its sector, industry, along with the broader market.
Here are a few key points to note. Based on a one-year view…
If you’re seeking Consumer Staples exposure, should you invest in XLP for a potential turnaround or in SFM, a sector leader with strong momentum?
This is an example of only one way to employ a diversification strategy. You can diversify among stocks vs. bonds, growth vs. value stocks, or emerging vs. developed markets, and many more.
Market shifts can misalign your portfolio with your strategy, making periodic rebalancing essential for maintaining diversification.
Remember that diversification isn’t about managing and not eliminating risk. You might consider hedging strategies like options or alternative asset exposure like gold, commodities, or crypto during longer downturns. How often should you rebalance? It depends—some do it on a set schedule (every six months or a year), others adjust when allocations drift too far, or after major market events shake things up.
Building a diversified portfolio takes a lot of planning, but it doesn’t have to be overly complicated. StockCharts gives you several tools to analyze, select, and build your portfolio. Use the tools to your advantage, and remember to stay flexible, as market conditions perpetually change, prompting you to rebalance from time to time.
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.