There’s no denying that the equity markets have taken on a decisively different look and feel in recent weeks.  We’ve compared the charts of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, as well as leading growth stocks like Nvidia, to an airplane experiencing a “power-on stall”.  Basically, the primary uptrend has been paused, but it’s unclear whether we’ll resume the uptrend after a brief corrective period.

I stand by my previous comments that the 200-day moving average, as well as the price gap formed in early May, remains the most important “line in the sand” for this market.  And as long as the S&P 500 and other leading names remain above their 200-day moving averages, then equities are still in decent shape.

One of the key features of this market off the early April has been the dominance of traditionally “offensive” sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary.  But are these leading sectors maintaining their leadership role as we progress through the spring months into the summer?

Leading Sectors Off the April Low Starting to Falter

My Market Misbehavior LIVE ChartList includes a series of relative strength charts showing the performance of key sectors versus the S&P 500.  When these lines are trending higher, the sector is outperforming the benchmark.  Generally speaking, I’d prefer to own stocks where the relative strength line is trending higher, as that confirms I’m doing better than a passive investment strategy!

Only three sectors have outperformed the S&P 500 index over the last month: technology, industrials, and consumer discretionary.  Notice how two of those sectors, technology and consumer discretionary, are seeing a downturn in relative strength over the last week?  It still may be early to declare a full leadership rotation, but this initial downturn in the relative performance could be a sign of further weakness to come.

Defensive Sectors Showing Early Signs of Strength

So if these leadership sectors are starting to slow down, which sectors are showing an improving relative strength?  Our next chart shows the relative performance of the four traditionally defensive sectors, most of which have turned higher over the last two weeks. 

Again, I’d hesitate to declare this a full and confirmed rotation, but the fact that defensive sectors are improving here suggests investors are beginning to reallocate a bit to more risk-off positions.  Over the next few weeks, improvement in these defensive sectors could provide a clear validation to a “market in correction” thesis.

Relative Rotation Graphs Confirm Defensive Rotation

Of course, when we’re talking about sector rotation, I always want to bring up the Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) and benefit from Julius de Kempenaer’s innovative data visualization approach.  First, let’s see how the daily RRG showed the 11 S&P 500 sectors back in early May.

We can see that the Leading quadrant includes those leading sectors such as technology.  In the Lagging quadrant we’ll find pretty much everything else, including all four of the defensive sectors discussed above.  Now let’s fast forward to the current RRG and see how things have rotated.

Now you’ll find health care, consumer staples, and other defensive sectors in the Improving quadrant.  Technology, industrials, and consumer discretionary have now rotated down into the Weakening quadrant.  So the RRG is showing at least an initial rotation away from the sectors that have been leading off the April market low.

One of the most important arguments from the bulls has been the dominance of offensive sectors over the last six weeks.  But as we’ve shown here today, the sector may be changing from a clearly bullish reading to a much more defensive warning sign for investors.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Don’t miss our daily market recap show on YouTube every trading day at 5:00pm ET!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Manage your stock portfolio like a pro! Learn stock portfolio management, trading strategy, and how to build stock watchlists like a professional investor with this insightful video from Grayson. He shares how to run your portfolio like a championship sports team—organizing stocks like players, keeping top performers in play, and tracking trade opportunities with precision.

This video originally premiered on May 30, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

SIL Silver Miners

SIL was among the leaders yesterday and now is close to triggering this double-bottom bullish pattern. Staying above the 43-mark would target 47. That’s not a big move, but let’s remember that SIL is sporting bullish formations on its longer-term charts, too.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF (SIL).

SIL – Weekly

Firstly, the double-bottom pattern on this weekly log chart annotated in blue remains alive. This objective is up near 49.

Secondly, the area highlighted in green here is the same pattern pictured on the daily chart above. That area is sitting at the very top of a much bigger bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that extends all the way back to 2021. Thus, if the short-term breakout works, it will trigger this one, as well. That target is in the mid-70s…

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF (SIL).

SIL – Monthly

And that green pattern above is part of this MUCH larger, 13-year potential double bottom. We still have a while to go before this one is triggered, but it’s important to keep all of these in the back of our minds.

Anyone who trades or tracks SIL knows that short-term whipsaws are the norm. So, while these breakouts may not be clean, the bullish structures are clear. The bottom line is that if SIL continues to make higher highs and higher lows, the patterns will continue to work.

FIGURE 3. MONTHLY CHART OF GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF (SIL).

USO Crude Oil

USO was among the leaders yesterday, but it’s still trying to bust through its 50-DMA, which has been the sticking point the last few weeks. If it can soon, USO could complete this potential bullish inverse H&S pattern. The upside target would be in the 77-78 range, and that would align with key short-term tops from the last year. First step, push above the 50-day line…

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF US OIL FUND (USO).

NVDA

The obvious question every time NVDA rallies is whether it’s too late to buy.  To get a true sense of the stock’s technical prospects, we need to view it across different charts and time frames.

First, here’s a view of the bullish flag pattern we cited on Tuesday (along with TSLA, GOOGL and META). Given the preceding staircase-like advance, the starting point of the flagpole is subjective. We’re using the early May low given that the stock avoided filling a gap from a few days earlier.

Regardless, the measured move counts to the 161 zone, which would be a new all-time high.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF NVIDIA CORP. (NVDA).

This second one is a daily chart that extends all the way back to 2010 and shows times when breaking below or above the 200-DMA led to strong, extended moves for the stock. From this angle, the recent 200-day breach didn’t last that long at all, and now NVDA has the chance to once again follow through after breaking back above it over the last few weeks.

FIGURE 6. LONGER-TERM DAILY CHART OF NVIDIA CORP. (NVDA).

Here’s a weekly, log chart going back to the 2022 low. NVDA has leveraged three major pattern breakouts since then to power the astounding rally the last two-plus years. With the stock last having made a new high last October and being net flat since last July, an eventual push back above the 150-zone could prompt big pattern-breakout number four.

FIGURE 7. WEEKLY CHART OF NVIDIA CORP. (NVDA).

Lastly, here are the biggest breakouts on this monthly chart that goes back over two decades. Again, looking at it from this viewpoint makes the last 11 months appear like a very small digestive phase, especially compared to the other three on the chart. Thus, the first step will be seeing how well NVDA can hold the opening gap. That’s important for today, but much more important for the days and weeks to come.

FIGURE 8. MONTHLY CHART OF NVIDIA CORP. (NVDA).

In this video, Joe analyzes which sectors to focus on when selecting new stocks. He demonstrates how to use the 18-period simple moving average (SMA) on monthly, weekly, and daily charts to identify the strongest stock patterns and the best timeframes to trade. He then provides chart analysis on the QQQ, IWM, and Bitcoin, before reviewing this week’s symbol requests submitted by viewers.

The video premiered on May 28, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

In this must-see market update, Larry Williams returns with timely stock market analysis, trading insights, and macroeconomic forecasts. Discover what’s next for the Federal Reserve, interest rates, and inflation — and how it could impact top stocks like Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), and consumer staples (XLP).

This video originally premiered on May 27, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated Larry Williams page!

Previously recorded videos from Larry are available at this link.

In this video, Chip Anderson, President of StockCharts, sits down with Tony for a conversation in the StockCharts studio! During this in-depth Q&A session, Chip and Tony explore the powerful features that make the OptionsPlay add-on a must-have for options traders using the StockCharts platform. They discuss the integration of the StockCharts Scanning Engine with OptionsPlay strategies—showcasing how this tool enhances your ability to find trade setups quickly and effectively.

This video premiered on May 23, 2025.

Confused by mixed market signals? Follow along as Julius analyzes sector rotation, asset rotation, and global market trends using daily and weekly Relative Rotation Graphs (RRGs).

In this video, Julius puts the current sector rotation in perspective on both weekly and daily Relative Rotation Graphs (RRGs). He also examines asset rotation and the position of the U.S. markets in relation to international equities.

This video was originally published on May 27, 2025. Click on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past videos from Julius can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

Get the latest stock market update with Mary Ellen McGonagle. Learn key downside signals, how to manage pullbacks, and which earnings reports could impact the market next week.

In this week’s episode, Mary Ellen reviews where the markets currently stand and what to watch for to signal further downside. She also highlights ways to combat inevitable pullbacks and shares the key earnings reports that are likely to move the markets in the upcoming week.

This video originally premiered May 23, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

Technology Back in Top-5

Last week’s market decline of 2-2.5% (depending on the index) has led to some notable shifts in sector performance and rankings.

This pullback, coming after a strong rally, is changing the order of highs and lows on the weekly chart — a particularly significant development, at least for me.

Let’s dive into the details and see what’s flying around in the market.

The composition of the top five sectors has seen some notable changes. Here’s how it stands now:

The big surprise here is Technology making its way into the top five, displacing Consumer Staples (now at #6). This shift suggests a gradual move from a more defensive positioning to sectors that are more cyclical and economically sensitive.

Another eye-catching move comes from Consumer Discretionary, jumping from #10 to #7 — a significant leap, albeit still in the bottom half of the ranking. Real Estate and Materials saw minor shifts, while Energy dropped to #10 and Health Care remains at #11.

1. (1) Industrials – (XLI)
2. (4) Communication Services – (XLC)*
3. (3) Utilities – (XLU)
4. (2) Financials – (XLF)*
5. (6) Technology – (XLK)*
6. (5) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
7. (10) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*
8. (7) Real-Estate – (XLRE)*
9. (8) Materials – (XLB)*
10. (9) Energy – (XLE)*
11. (11) Healthcare – (XLV)

Weekly/Daily RRG Analysis

The weekly Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) provides some interesting insights:

• Utilities maintains very high readings, but Consumer Staples (highest on RS-Ratio ranking) is likely to be pushed down by weak daily chart readings.
• Industrials continues to push further into the leading quadrant with stable momentum.
• Financials and Communication Services are inside the weakening quadrant but have room to curl back towards leading.
• Technology, despite having the second-lowest RS-Ratio reading, is rapidly improving with a strong RS-Momentum heading over recent weeks.

Remember, the ranking combines daily and weekly readings.

Technology’s high daily chart reading is propelling it into the top five, while Consumer Staples’ weak daily reading is pushing it out.

Industrials: The Leader Holding Strong

XLI is now pushing against its all-time high, just below 145. After two weeks of attempts, last week’s slight market decline confirms that this resistance level has worked.

We’re now looking for where any potential decline might stop and form a new low. The gap area from two weeks ago seems to be a good support area to watch.

The relative strength line breaking out of its consolidation formation continues to drag the RRG lines higher. XLI, for good reason, remains the strongest sector at the moment.

Communication Services: Stable Relative Uptrend

XLC is continuing its move higher with remarkable stability. The uptrend in the RS line is still valid, currently testing the lower boundary of the rising channel.

Due to the lack of upward relative momentum in recent weeks, both RRG lines are now pointing lower.

However, the RS-Ratio line remains well above 100, keeping the XLC tail on the right-hand side of the RRG.

Utilities: Testing Resistance

XLU is pushing against overhead resistance but has yet to manage a decisive break higher.

With defensive sectors under pressure, it’s questionable whether this breakout will happen in the short term.

The RS line versus SPY is dropping back into its trading range, unable to break away decisively. This drop is causing the RS-Momentum line to roll over and start pointing lower.

It’s the recent strength in relative strength that’s keeping Utilities inside the leading quadrant for now.

Financials: At a Crossroads

The Financial sector seems to be respecting the old rising support line as resistance, with the market dropping off that line last week and now trading around $50.

This move is affecting the relative strength line, which has returned to the lower boundary of the rising channel — a level that needs to hold to maintain a positive outlook for XLF.

The RS-Ratio line is stable around 102.50, high enough to keep Financials on the right-hand side of the graph.

The RS-Momentum line has just dropped below 100, positioning the XLF tail inside the weakening quadrant, but with enough room to curl back up before hitting lagging.

Technology: The Week’s Winner

XLK saw a significant jump two weeks ago and has since returned to test the old resistance area as support. If last week’s decline continues, there’s a bit more room to the downside — $220 seems to be a good level to watch for support, marking the bottom of the gap range from two weeks ago.

The jump has pushed the relative strength line above its falling resistance line, a good sign that seems to be breaking the relative downtrend in place since mid-last year.

This is changing the characteristics of the relative strength move for the Technology sector.

For now, it has only pushed the RS-Momentum line above 100, moving XLK into the improving quadrant on the weekly RRG, but it’s already starting to drag the RS-Ratio line higher.

Portfolio Performance

We’re clawing back some of the losses from recent weeks. The underperformance of almost 6% last week has now shrunk to 4.6%. Still behind the benchmark, but closing in again and narrowing the gap.

It’s a long-term game, so we keep pushing forward. So far, nothing out of the ordinary. Let’s wait and see whether we’ve seen the low in underperformance and how long it will take to return to SPY’s performance since inception.

#StayAlert –Julius